The home team has won every matchup since 2016. Memphis' Blake Watson leads the AAC in yards by a running back (a QB actually leads overall). The Green Wave are allowing just 86.2 yards per game on the ground. Tulane QB Michael Pratt hasn't looked quite right in two games since returning from injury, and the Green Wave have been turnover prone all year. A field goal at the end by either team sounds about right, so I'll take the 4.5 with the home side as the Liberty Bowl has become one of the tougher places to play in the nation.