Tennessee is the much better team, but this spread is six or seven points too high. The Cardinals are coming off of their second straight year making a bowl game. The Cardinals are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games against Power 5 teams. They haven't lost a game by 35+ points since 2018. The Volunteers defense is not very good. The Cardinals will be able to score enough points to cover this spread.

The Volunteers have a ton of experience on both sides of the ball, and that will play a large role in this game. QB Hendon Hooker is a super senior leading a high-octane offense that's entering its second season in the same up-tempo system. Ball State is breaking in some new pieces on defense, as well as a new quarterback who will be facing a very strong pass rush.