Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
With late word that Alabama may be using more than one quarterback in this game, it reeks to me of desperation. Clemson may win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and it has enough playmaking talent to match Alabama throughout this game. Give me the field goal with the defending national champions.
SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans) -- The spread has lost all value as it has now moved past three key number of 3 with an additional hook. I'm not sure it will matter, but the money-line price is still fairly decent for the Crimson Tide in this spot. I like their firepower a little better, with QB Jalen Hurts having so much big-game experience. Kelly Bryant has exceeded projections for Clemson, but is still somewhat one-dimensional with the run. Alabama coach Nick Saban's history of success in revenge games also plays in favor of the Tide.
SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans) -- Two bowl seasons ago, the total was 50.5 when Clemson and Alabama met. Points scored: 85. A year ago, the total was nearly identical at 51. Points scored: 66. This time, finally, the total has significantly shifted . . . downward. The public looks at these vaunted defenses and anticipates a grinder of a game. Not me. The Crimson Tide has sailed Over in 10 of the past 13 bowls. Clemson has hurdled the total in four consecutive January outings, one fewer than Alabama. Jalen Hurts, who QB’ed the Tide to 31 points against Clemson in the national championship showdown, is back. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is not after generating 35 points, but Kelly Bryant is a worthy successor. Brace for yourself for a few more points than widely forecasted.
SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans) -- People are buying into the name brand of Alabama without properly realizing why the Crimson Tide were the SEC's third-best team in 2017. The offensive line has had issues, the defensive front doesn't have the killer instinct and there is no proven playmaker outside to complement Calvin Ridley. The Tigers will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball consistently and win by 10 or more over the Crimson Tide in the third edition of the trilogy.
Alabama is a funny case. It's a team many people believed didn't earn a spot in the College Football Playoff, but now that the Tide are in, they're considered the favorite to win it all. My projections show a low-scoring game, and while I don't think Alabama pulls away for a big win, I do think they win.
SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans) -- This is the matchup that Alabama wanted. The Tide want to avenge last year’s defeat in the title game to these Tigers. The difference is that Alabama enters this game not at full strength, and the Tigers are arguably better defensively than they were last year. The Tide will have their struggles in this one.
SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans, La.) -- Alabama has my No. 6 offense and No. 1 defense. Clemson has my No. 15 offense and No. 3 defense. Dabo Swinney has done a nice job reloading at Clemson after winning the national championship last year, but the Tigers are still a notch behind Alabama in overall talent. I think Alabama's offensive line will be able to handle maybe the best defensive front in college football. Alabama's D-line will control the line of scrimmage, making life difficult for Kelly Bryant and the Clemson offense. Deshaun Watson made plays no other QB could make against Bama's defense. If Bryant struggles early, look for a low-scoring game as well.