Miami's defense may be a little undervalued here. The Canes' season-long defensive efficiency ranks #172 nationally, but has jumped to #61 in their last 10 games, holding opponents to 98 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, NC State's defensive efficiency has slightly regressed against tougher competition. Miami ranks Top-20 in both making threes and preventing them. Models make this a 1.5-pt game, so we're getting an extra possession here.