New Mexico State won only nine games last season and has a new coach and five new starters. Through five games they are shooting only 40% from the field. Fresno State returns three starters from an 11-win team last season that scored only 63 ppg and has coach Justin Hutson back for his sixth season. The Under is the play.

Models project 139. Several steam moves have already moved the number to 141 at some books. There are contrasting styles of play here, with New Mexico State running at an average pace, but Fresno State running about as slow as you can get, averaging 66.9 possessions/game (#325 nationally). The Bulldogs are a great shooting team, but their defense is also good enough to stifle NMSU to keep this under.

My simulations make this total 137. I'm on the Under.