The play on this game is the uncertainty of Gonzaga who lost six key players from last season's 31-6 squad and I’m also skeptical of the Zags without Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd who was assistant for 20 years under Mark Few. Arizona has played more like Gonzaga than Gonzaga the last two years. With Purdue, I know what I’m getting in November unlike March behind coach Matt Painter and they returned all five starters and 92% of their scoring from last season. I’ll lay the points with the more experienced team.

The Maui Classic has moved to Honolulu for this November, giving this more the look of the Hawaiian Airlines Tip-off at Christmas time at the Stan Sheriff Center. New-look Gonzaga proceeds minus Drew Timme for the first time in years but Mark Few likes a couple of his top-tier portal adds such as ex-Wyo PF Graham Ike and ex-Creighton PG Ryan Nembhard. Zack Edey, of course, distorts the floor for Purdue, and as these teams both know how to pot the ball in the basket, clearing this mid 150s total looks very do-able in the opening round this afternoon. Play Gonzaga-Purdue Over (at Honolulu)

Models project 149. Purdue is already one of the slowest teams in the country in adjusted tempo, but Gonzaga is running a bit slower to start the year too, holding opponents to 18.7 seconds/possession. Both clean the defensive glass at a high level while preventing second-chance points. While these are two of the best offensive teams in the country, they also rate above-average in every important defensive metric. Only a couple baskets separate two evenly-matched teams, so expect defense to be tight.

My simulations make this total 150. I'm on the Under.