Baylor started slow against UC Santa Barbara, but an intense defensive effort that led to 14 forced turnovers allowed the Bears to pull away in the second half. Creighton edged out NC State despite losing the rebounding battle. But the Bluejays had 15 assists on 26 field goals and went 17-of-19 from the free-throw line. Even so, the battle-tested Bears should have the edge in defensive intensity and physicality over a Creighton club that historically falters amid higher stakes. Baylor is a value side Sunday.

I bought a Final Four ticket on Creighton back in May when South Dakota State star Baylor Scheierman, the 2021-22 Summit League Player of the Year, announced he was transferring there, and a path to the Elite Eight is certainly wide open as Creighton would play No. 15 Princeton with a win here. The Bluejays are just 1-11 in their second NCAA Tournament game of an appearance, but who on Baylor can deal with 7-footer and Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalbrenner? In Round 1 against NC State, he was 11-for-14 from the field for 31 points and leads the nation in shooting at 71.7%. Creighton doesn't have much of a bench so it needs to stay out of foul trouble but will advance if it does. Overall in KenPom, Creighton ranks 13th while Baylor ranks 15th.