Outside of back-to-back wins against Baylor, Iowa State has been extremely mediocre. They lived off what they did in December and early January to be given such a high rating by the Tournament committee. The Cyclones closed out on a 4-9 run and a 4-11 ATS run. Pitt had a minor hiccup to end the season, but still came out Wednesday and beat Mississippi State as a dog to make them 10-4 ATS this season as a dog, aiding the best cover record in the nation -- Pitt went 23-9-2 ATS. I took the points with Pitt.

Pittsburgh comes off a win in the play-in game against one of the best defenses in the country in Mississippi State. Their big man Federiko Federiko should be good to go, who missed the last game, as the Panthers were out-rebounded by 21. But Pittsburgh was able to grind out a win by knocking down their three’s and generating seven steals. Like Mississippi State, Iowa State has an above-average defense but can be streaky on offense. The Cyclones really struggle from the free-throw at 67.4 percent on the season and the experience of the Panthers are able to create contact getting to the line, knocking them down at 75.7 percent as well. I’m on Pittsburgh.

Friday Midwest Region game from Greensboro -- Pitt will at least know the gym as it played there in the ACC Tournament. Is Iowa State any good? The only two wins for the Cyclones in their past seven games are over Baylor -- maybe they are just a matchup problem for the Bears. Without third-leading scorer Caleb Grill (booted off team a couple of weeks ago), I don't think ISU is all that great. In 10 of the 11 tournaments the First Four has existed, at least one of its at-large participants has advanced to the second round. At-large Pittsburgh won in the First Four on Tuesday, although it probably shouldn't have, against Mississippi State. Typically, teams who win in the First Four on Tuesday have to play in the first round Thursday, but Pitt will benefit from an extra day of rest. And that may mean 7-footer Federiko Federiko will play after missing Tuesday. The buzz around the program is that he will give it a go. I don't know the backstory of his name, but I love it and may legally change my name to Turquoise Turquoise. The Model has Pitt winning outright. Wouldn't surprise me at all. The Panthers are the best ATS team in the country.

Pittsburgh is 13-2 over this number in their last 15 games, with one of the losses coming on Tuesday night in a brutal second half performance against Mississippi State. Fortunately they found a way to win and maybe they'll play looser on Friday being that they probably should've lost the play-in game on a last second shot and/or tip-in by the Bulldogs. Check out Early Edge in 5 on YouTube at 4 p.m. ET on Thursday to hear more of my rationale...