I can't ever get a read on Houston, honestly. KenPom loves the Cougars but they sometimes lay an egg. Do I think they lose to UAB -- by the way, UH will be heading to the Big 12 and UAB one of the replacements to the AAC in a couple of years -- no, I don't. But the Blazers will have arguably the best player on the floor in Jordan Walker (20.4 ppg), and 7-foot-1 Trey Jamison will patrol the paint if he can stay out of foul trouble. During the regular season, four of Houston's five losses came to teams that averaged at least 69 possessions per 40 minutes and UAB plays super fast.

UAB comes in hot with a seven-game win streak, but I like Houston to beat the Blazers by double digits. The Cougars bury teams with their defense, which leads the nation in field goal percentage (37.3). Houston rolled through the AAC Tournament with three wins and covers and has won and covered seven of its last eight. The Cougars might be playing their best ball of the season right now. Houston to cover.

UAB head coach Andy Kennedy has done an outstanding job turning around his alma mater. The Blazers led Conference USA in scoring, and I believe they have too much firepower for a Houston team that lacks quality victories. UAB wins this matchup.

There's going to be a big trend here with my first round picks. We will be taking the points more often than not. UAB is a top 50 team this season and should not be getting 8.5. They have a great offense and are one of the best three point teams in the country. Shooting matters and translates. I think Houston is going to be riding high off the Memphis win and potentially be a bit surprised by a the firepower of the Blazers. This one probably boils down to the Cougars playing to keep their season alive rather than cruising to a three possession win. Take the points.