My model is currently at a 57 percent win rate this year, 55-41-1 on the season and 38-20 (66 percent) in the last week. I preface this pick with the full track record because going against a huge team like Ohio State takes some guts and full trust in the model. The numbers are coming back with this game as a pick'em. This is going to be a contest that likely comes down to the final possessions, and in that situation, I'll take the home team with the points. Don't go any lower than +2.5 though.