South Carolina has gone 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games, but two of those covers came in the last two games of the NCAA Tournament, including its upset of Duke. In both games, the Gamecocks won with a faster pace, which is not their strength, but it worked. However, the difference between those last two games and Friday is that this game is at Madison Square Garden, while the other two were in Greenville, S.C. There won't be a home-court edge here. Baylor gets the cover.

South Carolina’s physicality and defense have long made it a difficult opponent. When the Gamecocks add some offense, the result is what we saw in their stunning 88-81 upset of Duke behind a 65-point second half. Afterward, Coach K said South Carolina was the most physical opponent his team had faced. This spells trouble for Baylor, a more finesse team than the Blue Devils. The Bears are similarly stingy on the defensive end, but have struggled with slow-down, physical opponents. These points loom as valuable in what rates to be a choppy, low-scoring affair.

Swept up by South Carolina’s totally awesome second half against Duke, the public has kept this spread surprisingly small. While a low-scoring game tends to favor the side receiving points, I cannot get past one stark stat comparison: Baylor ranks third nationally in offensive rebounding, the Gamecocks 268th on the defensive boards. Can you say “second-chance points?” The Gamecocks might not shoot 20 percent against the Bears’ sticky defense, as they did in the first half Sunday. But they might not reach 65 points for the game -- their total versus Duke in the second half alone.

During the regular season, perhaps no Top-15 team was looked down upon as much as Baylor. That's led the Bears to play with a chip on their shoulders. South Carolina, on the other hand, stormed up the charts with two solid tournament wins, including an upset of Duke, and has the fixture people know in coach Frank Martin. After Baylor's tight win over USC, bettors may be quick to jump on the first weekend's darling in South Carolina. Yet, look for the Gamecocks' recent flirtation with fast-paced play to burn them unexpedtedly Friday. Grab Baylor.