Tennessee Volunteers 2021 football odds, trends: Josh Heupel against the spread betting record very similar to that of Jeremy Pruitt

Josh Heupel had no ties to the state of Tennessee and a very limited link to the SEC, but the former University of Central Florida coach was hired as the new Tennessee football coach Wednesday because Heupel definitely had ties with new Vols athletic director Danny White, hired from UCF himself recently and the guy who first lured Heupel to Orlando. While Heupel's 28-8 straight up record is clearly much better than the 16-19 mark of fired Jeremy Pruitt, the two coaches' against the spread betting records are quite similar.

Courtesy of a search at SDQL, Pruitt was 15-19-1 against the spread at Tennessee with his team on average a 0.8-point underdog and losing by an average score of 26.2-22.9. Pruitt was just 2-11 straight up against ranked opponents.

It's somewhat apples and oranges comparing Heupel to Pruitt because UCF was one of the top programs in the much weaker American Athletic Conference in his three seasons, while Tennessee most certainly was not one of the top programs in the SEC, the nation's best conference, in Pruitt's three seasons.

That said, Heupel's Knights were 17-18-1 ATS as average favorites of 16.2 points the past three seasons. UCF won on average by a score of 43.0-25.7. Heupel was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS against ranked teams.

His lone game against an SEC school was vs. No. 11 LSU on New Year's Day 2019. UCF entered that game 12-0 but lost 40-32 as a 7.5-point underdog. Heupel was one of five FBS coaches over the past 30 years to go undefeated in the regular season (excluding bowl games) in his first year as a head coach.

The only tie Heupel has to the SEC was his stint as quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at Missouri from 2016-17. The Tigers were a combined 11-14 those seasons under former head coach Barry Odom. Heupel is considered a very good offensive mind; UCF averaged 43.0 points in his three seasons, fifth-best in the FBS. Since 2018, Tennessee averaged 22.9 ppg. The Over/Under in Heupel's 36 games at UCF was 18-18 with an average total of 67.6.

Heupel was a terrific quarterback at Oklahoma from 1999-2000. He won several national awards in that 2000 season but was second to Florida State's Chris Weinke in a close Heisman Trophy race. Heupel was drafted in the sixth round of the 2001 draft by the Miami Dolphins but never appeared in an NFL game.

Heupel reportedly wasn't White's first choice; Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott was. ESPN reported that Elliott had serious discussions about the job but opted to stay put.

The Vols open the 2021 season at home vs. MAC school Bowling Green, and Tennessee certainly will be a double-digit favorite there. William Hill Sportsbook lists UT as a +25000 long shot to win the national championship.

TENNESSEE'S 2021 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE 

Sept. 4: vs. Bowling Green

Sept. 11: vs. Pittsburgh

Sept. 18: vs. Tennessee Tech

Sept. 25: at Florida

Oct. 2: at Missouri

Oct. 9: vs. South Carolina

Oct. 16: vs. Ole Miss

Oct. 23: at Alabama

Oct. 30: OPEN DATE

Nov. 6: at Kentucky

Nov. 13: vs. Georgia

Nov. 20: vs. South Alabama

Nov. 27: vs. Vanderbilt

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 Super Bowl on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.