Trevon Diggs season-ending injury fallout: Proven model only slightly downgrades Cowboys thanks to presence of Stephon Gilmore

Earlier this week, we told readers that Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons was taking a massive amount of action at DraftKings to win not just NFL Defensive Player of the Year but also MVP. Parsons is obviously Dallas' most important defender, but a relatively close second is Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs, and he was lost for the season due a torn ACL suffered in practice Thursday. As good as Diggs is, the SportsLine Projection Model (see below) didn't downgrade the Cowboys all that much because of the addition of Stephon Gilmore during the offseason.

Diggs suffered the injury during a one-on-one period. These types of major injuries are why NFL players are willing to hold out to get huge guarantees in their contracts. Diggs signed a five-year, $97 million contract extension with the Cowboys during training camp, which included a $21.25 million signing bonus and $42.3 million guaranteed. He had missed just one game in each of the past two years.

Since Diggs entered the NFL as the No. 51 overall pick in the 2020 draft out of Alabama, his 18 interceptions are tied for the league lead with JC Jackson. In 2021, Diggs had a whopping NFL-high 11 picks (two returned for scores), tying a franchise record and the most in the league in more than 40 years. Only 11 players in NFL history have recorded at least 12 interceptions in a season, the last being Raiders' Lester Hayes when he snagged 13 in 1980 with both his hands covered in long-outlawed Stickum.

This year for the NFL's No. 1 defense, Diggs had one interception and a forced fumble through two games. He had allowed just three catches for 31 yards on eight targets as the nearest defender in coverage, and QBs had a 9.9 passer rating on throws with Diggs as the nearest defender. That those QBs were Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson is beside the point.

"No one has the impact he has," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said of Diggs. "The facts are that we do have depth. We don't have depth with somebody with his unique abilities, but we've got depth relative to playing the position."  

No Cowboys futures odds were affected by the Diggs injury – they sure would be if Parsons went down – nor has there been any significant movement for Sunday's game at Arizona (although the total dropped a half point at some books). Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs did see his over/under passing yardage total at DraftKings rise a few yards to 184.5.

Back in March, the Cowboys acquired Gilmore, a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, from the Indianapolis Colts for a fifth-round draft pick. Gilmore is still an excellent player who now will move into the 1A role.

Here is what SportsLine Projection Model creator Stephen Oh said of his post-Diggs simulation: "By getting Stephon Gilmore, the impact of Diggs' injury is not as significant as it would have been otherwise. The loss is the unrealized upside if Gilmore and Diggs are two of the NFL's top five corners. Based on the first two weeks, the Cowboys may have been trending for 13 wins and a 20% shot of winning the Super Bowl."

Second-year player Daron Bland should move into Diggs' spot. Bland's six interceptions since the start of last season are tied for the most in the NFL. He returned one for a score in Week 1 against the Giants.

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