Fans of the Buffalo Bills have been out in full force this offseason in terms of betting 2022 futures on their team. The Bills are taking double the action of any other club at Caesars Sportsbook to win Super Bowl 57, and quarterback Josh Allen is leading the pack by far as bettors' favorite to take home 2022 NFL MVP honors. He is the +700 favorite, the same price Buffalo is to win its first title. On the flip side, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, the two-time reigning MVP, is taking shockingly little action.
As of this writing, Allen has taken 16 percent of all money wagered on the NFL MVP prop and 12 percent of tickets sold. Allen finished a distant second in 2020 MVP voting to Rodgers but didn't get any votes last year despite throwing for 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns while rushing for 763 yards and six scores.
Perhaps bettors are expecting a step back for Rodgers, whose four total NFL MVP Awards are one shy of Peyton Manning's record five, without star receiver Davante Adams in Green Bay any longer. The only player to win three straight MVP Awards was Rodgers' predecessor Brett Favre. Rodgers ranks just 15th in tickets (two percent) and 16th in dollars (one percent). He has dropped from an open of +800 to +1000.
"I'm not sure why Rodgers has been getting so little action in the offseason recently," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "Davante Adams is now gone, so that's probably a factor in people's thinking. He's also up there in age and maybe people are just expecting him to not stay at that level. Usually when someone wins MVP, they're one of the favorites for next year and sometimes people will look for a little more bang for their buck when betting futures. It's definitely interesting, but he keeps proving doubters wrong every year."
Even more strange, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes ranks 13th in tickets (three percent) and 15th in dollars (two percent). Mahomes also lost a superstar receiver in Tyreek Hill.
Believe it or not, the 49ers' Trey Lance, who isn't even 100 percent guaranteed San Francisco's starting job in Week 1 if the team can't trade Jimmy Garoppolo, has drawn more betting action than Rodgers and Mahomes combined. Lance has shot up from +20000 to +6000.
"The Lance situation isn't clear-cut," Pullen said. "[Jimmy] Garoppolo is still a 49er. There are rumors that there are questions about whether Lance will be able to be the guy. We just don't know, he's never played a full season. If Garoppolo is gone, then Lance's odds will move a little lower. But that's what people are speculating on, which is why he's already moved this much. [Lance] and Brady are our two biggest liabilities so far for MVP."
The NFL MVP is basically a quarterback award these days and there are only three non-QBs under +10000: Titans running back Derrick Henry, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, and Rams receiver Cooper Kupp are all +6000. Kupp won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and Offensive Player of the Year, so if he couldn't win MVP with those numbers, it's hard to see how any receiver ever will (he would be the first to do so).
"It's hard to unseat quarterbacks for the MVP since they're the focal point on offense," Pullen said. "But having Taylor and Kupp in the mix last year, it was a prudent move on our part to open them lower. These odds aren't set in stone, if people aren't touching them, they'll continue to go up. But you can't just throw these guys up at triple-digit odds anymore."
The biggest potential winnings on an MVP bet so far would go to a Washington, D.C. bettor who put down $2,500 on ex-Washington and current Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins at +10000 – that would win $250,000. Cousins is now down to +7500.
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