UFC 246: Oddsmakers give McGregor vs. Cowboy little chance of going distance

Most major UFC cards have a title fight as the main event, but that's not the case on Saturday night when Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon at UFC 246 against Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone. McGregor is a -315 favorite on the DraftKings MMA odds with Cerrone at +250. The main event from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas probably won't start until around 11:45 p.m. ET.

McGregor (21-4) is a former two-division champion in the UFC but hasn't won a fight since November 2016 when he added the lightweight title to his featherweight belt with a second-round knockout of Eddie Alvarez. Then again, McGregor has only fought once in the Octagon since, losing the lightweight title – he had been stripped of the featherweight belt due to inactivity – with a fourth-round submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018. McGregor also memorably fought Floyd Mayweather in a boxing match in August 2017 and says he'd like to fight Mayweather again in the ring.

Cerrone (36-13) has won 23 of those 36 fights in the UFC, which is an organization record, but the 36-year-old is on the downside of his career off losses last September to Justin Gaethje and in June 2019 to Tony Ferguson.

One interesting prop is the over/under rounds of just 1.5 at DraftKings, with the over a slight -121 favorite. Even though this isn't a title fight, it is scheduled for five rounds because it's the main event. That it does the distance is +440 at FanDuel with no at -800.

Cerrone has had 15 of his career fights go to the judges, most recently a unanimous decision win over Al Iaquinta in May. McGregor, though, has had only two fights go the distance: a majority decision win in a rematch vs. Nate Diaz in August 2016 and a unanimous decision win (three rounds) over Max Holloway in 2013.

The favored method of victory is McGregor by KO/TKO at -200; "Notorious" has won 18 of his fights that way. That the fight ends by a KO/TKO for either fighter is -320, on points +490 and by submission +550. All four of McGregor's losses are by submission. Cerrone winning that way is +600. A total of 17 of his 36 victories (47 percent) are by submission.

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