Rangers vs. Mariners Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Texas can clinch playoff spot, push Seattle to edge of elimination

Two more spots in the American League playoffs can be earned Thursday night. The Baltimore Orioles already are in but would clinch the AL East for the first time since 2014 with a home victory over Boston. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers have a Magic Number of 2 to clinch their first AL West title since 2016. Texas can't clinch the division Thursday, but can earn a Wild Card spot as it visits the desperate Seattle Mariners to open a four-game set. The M's wouldn't be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss but would truly have their backs against the wall. They are -119 favorites on the SportsLine consensus.

Texas (89-69), Houston (87-72) and Seattle (85-73) are all technically alive to win the AL West, but none of them have even clinched a playoff spot yet. The Rangers' Magic Number to do that is 1 – a victory on Thursday would put them in as a Wild Card team at a minimum. Because the second-place Astros don't play until Friday in Arizona, Texas can't clinch the West until then at the earliest.

The Mariners led the division not long ago, but are now in deep trouble with a Tragic Number of 3. They are slumping at the worst possible time, losing five of six – three in Texas last weekend and two of three at home to start this week vs. Houston. In September, the Mariners are hitting just .217/.303/.324 with runners in scoring position with a .627 OPS that ranks third lowest in baseball.

"Our season is not over," manager Scott Servais said after Wednesday's loss. "We just need help right now ... which is unfortunate."

Tampa Bay (97-62) will be the top AL wild card team. Toronto (87-71) currently sits second, a half game over No. 3 Houston, which itself is 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners. Seattle did at least win the season series over the Astros but lost it to Texas, so the division title is not realistic (they'd be eliminated from that race with a loss Thursday).

The Blue Jays are -270 favorites to be the second wild card team at DraftKings, followed by the Astros (+380), Mariners (+1200) and Rangers (+1600), who only have such long odds because they control the division. To earn the last Wild Card spot, the Astros are -145, Mariners +320, Blue Jays +370 and Rangers +2800. Toronto closes with a three-game home set this weekend vs. Tampa Bay, which will have little to play for.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.25 ERA) starts for the Rangers tonight. The trade acquisition struggled his first two outings this month but has allowed just one run over his past three outings, spanning 21 innings. Last Saturday, he beat Seattle with seven shutout innings. 

Montgomery is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs tonight, as is Seattle's Logan Gilbert (13-7, 3.75), who has lost back-to-back starts for the first time this season. He was opposite Montgomery on Saturday and allowed two earned over 5.2 innings. Gilbert has a 2.87 ERA in nine career starts vs. Texas.

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.