2023 AL West odds: Astros favored over Mariners, Rangers in historically close division race entering September

Friday is the first day of September and since 1996, which was the first full season with at least one wild card in each league, about 80% of MLB division leaders entering September went on to win it. There has not been a season since '96 in which none of the division leaders entering September went on to win their divisions. By far the most interesting race this year is the AL West with Seattle and Houston tied for first and Texas a game back.

This is only the third time since divisions were established in 1969 that three teams in the same division are within a game or fewer of the lead entering September, joining the 1980 NL East and 1969 NL West. Pittsburgh led the East in 1980 entering September but finished eight games behind winner Philadelphia. San Francisco led the NL West in '69 but Atlanta won it. So this is the first time since the implementation of three divisions in the AL and NL in 1994 that three teams are within one game of first entering September.

Houston, which has won the AL West five of the past six years, is currently the -115 favorite at DraftKings with Seattle at +210 and Texas at +300. The Mariners enter September with at least a share of the AL West lead for the first time since 2001 when they won it with an MLB-record-tying 116 victories. The M's haven't won the division since.

Seattle and Houston are also tied for the second AL wild card spot, 5.5 games back of Tampa Bay, which holds the first spot, while Texas occupies the final playoff seed. If you are wondering about head-to-head tiebreakers, Texas leads Seattle 5-1 (seven games remaining), Seattle leads Houston 8-2 (three games remaining) and Houston leads Texas 6-4 (three games remaining).

The Mariners' final nine games are against the other two teams. Per MLB.com, Seattle has the toughest remaining schedule of the trio with it opponents holding a .524 winning percentage (as of Thursday). The M's just set a franchise record with 21 wins in August, their most in any month. The 2001 team topped out at 20 wins in three different months. Note that Mariners superstar Julio Rodriguez, who has been otherworldly of late, hasn't played since Monday with a foot injury but is expected back this weekend vs. the Mets.

Houston deserves to be favored simply with all its championship experience, having added Justin Verlander at the trade deadline, and with the Astros finally getting healthy. Former All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley only made his season debut Tuesday, for example. The Astros have one of the easiest schedules left in the majors as their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .459.

Texas led the West for much of the season but then went on an eight-game losing streak starting on Aug. 16. The Rangers have course corrected since with three wins in their past five and start a big nine-game homestand on Friday vs. Minnesota. The Rangers' remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .507.

The favored division straight forecast at DraftKings is Astros first, Rangers second at +230. Seattle first and Texas second is the +1300 longshot. That the AL West is the winning World Series division is +340, behind the NL East (+240), AL East (+320) and NL West (+330). 

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