Texas A&M wins games by shutting down the opposition and hoping its offense can manage enough points to win. The Aggies have an average score of 18-16 in their three FBS games so far. Now, they are without their top receiver Ainias Smith, who is out for the season with a leg injury suffered last week. Mississippi State’s offense has not really been tested yet, but the Bulldogs only managed 16 points on the road at LSU. The total in this game is too high.

The Aggies are not living up to their preseason expectations, barely escaping a second loss of the season last week. Their stock is low, and I'm ready to buy it against a Mississippi State team that shouldn't be favored nearly this much. A&M's offense has struggled, but so did Mississippi State's when it faced LSU earlier this year. The Aggies defense is just as good, if not better than LSU's, and there's a very real chance the Aggies win this one outright.

Bulldogs defensive coordinator Zach Arnett isn't going to be intimidated by anything he sees on tape from the Aggies this week, especially since the Aggies will be without star wide receiver Ainias Smith. The game plan for Mississippi State is simple ... stop Devon Achane and stop the Aggies. Once they accomplish that, it'll be easy for the Bulldogs to deflate the football and post an easy -- and a slightly ugly -- win.