I win here either way. Win some cabbage or Sparty wins. This hurts me terribly but now that we know Jayden Reed isn't with Michigan State, I have to take the Huskies at home. Not just an excellent receiver but one of the nation's top returners. MSU also without two key defensive starters. Big Ten teams playing out West just don't do well. Mel Tucker, prove me wrong.

Michigan State is the No. 11 team in the country but is an underdog this weekend against an unranked Washington team. There is a ton of unknowns about this Washington team, which is in the first year with coach Kalen DeBoer and QB Michael Penix Jr. My model has the Spartans winning by almost a full touchdown despite being underdogs, which makes sense after Washington went just 2-4 ATS and SU at home last season against FBS opponents.

New Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., formerly of Indiana, has lit it up in his first two games with the Huskies - two wins, two covers and two passing performances of more than 335 yards. But the opponents were Kent, against whom they got a late cover, and Portland State. I think his success this week will be modest versus the strong defense of Michigan State, which brought back three of its four defensive backs. The Spartans' ground game will control the clock. Take the points with Michigan State.