Below, we examine three Polymarket prediction markets for Week 1, using information from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, along with relevant team and player trends. The three markets feature Detroit vs. New Orleans, Philadelphia vs. Washington, and the New York Giants vs. Dallas.
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Polymarket prediction markets for NFL Week 1
Lions vs. Saints: Detroit to defeat New Orleans ($0.75 per share)
Eagles vs. Commanders: Philadelphia to defeat Washington ($0.69 per share)
Giants vs. Cowboys: Dallas to defeat New York ($0.61 per share)
Lions vs. Saints predictions
Detroit finished just 9-8 last season, but the offense wasn't really the problem. The Lions scored 28.3 points per game, fourth-most in the NFL, and ranked ninth leaguewide in offensive EPA/Play with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams doing most of the damage. New Orleans went 6-11 and ranked just 27th in offensive EPA/Play. The Saints weren't exactly pushovers everywhere, though. Their defense quietly finished 10th in defensive EPA/Play, five spots better than Detroit. That's the wrinkle in a market otherwise tilted heavily toward the Lions: New Orleans' defense was considerably more functional than its record suggested, while Detroit's established offensive core remains loaded.
Last season was a supremely unpleasant encore for Washington. After reaching the NFC Championship Game in 2024, the Commanders tumbled to 5-12 as Jayden Daniels battled injuries and appeared in just seven games. Interestingly, Washington still ranked 16th in offensive EPA/Play, one spot ahead of Philadelphia. The defense, under Dan Quinn, was the eyesore. The Commanders finished 31st in defensive EPA/Play, while the Eagles checked in ninth and won the NFC East at 11-6. Philadelphia therefore didn't need its offense to be an utter powerhouse. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and company had considerably more room for error because the defense usually held up its end of the bargain. Daniels being back and healthy in 2026 changes the equation, but last year's defensive disparity was jarring.
The Giants finally exorcised one Dallas demon in January, defeating the Cowboys 34-17 at MetLife Stadium and snapping a nine-game losing streak in the rivalry. There was a caveat: Dak Prescott played only the first half. Still, Jaxson Dart helped finish the job and now enters Year 2 in a new offense under John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Dart showed plenty of flair as a rookie, accounting for 24 touchdowns between the air and ground, and New York surprisingly ranked 10th in offensive EPA/Play despite finishing 4-13. Dallas was even better offensively, ranking fifth in EPA/Play, and Prescott provides the established quarterback commodity in this matchup. So, unlike last year's record contrast, this showdown involves two offenses whose underlying efficiency was considerably better than their teams' final standings suggested.
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