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2026 Texas Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 69% probability for one side of James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Texas Senate winner
It all comes down to today, the final day of the Texas Senate race, with Democrat James Talarico facing Republican Ken Paxton on Election Day. You can trade with the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 and get a $55 bonus after $25 in trades. Talarico trades at $0.69 per share on Kalshi, up from $0.63 on Oct. 20, and Paxton trades at $0.31 per share, down from $0.37. The race has flipped since December 2024, when Paxton led the Texas Senate prediction market, 76% to 25%. More than $76 million has been traded across the Texas Senate winner prediction markets at Kalshi as the 2026 midterm elections reach their final day. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here: Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate control odds on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. Check out our Kalshi promo code review for full details.
How to claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for $55 bonus
- Sign Up: Click Claim Bonus and enter code SPORTSLINE55 during registration.
- Verify: Pass identity verification (KYC)
- Deposit: Complete a deposit of $10+.
- Trade $25: Place $25 or more in trades within 30 days.
- Use Bonus Credits: Receive $55 in bonus trading credits and trade them within 7 days.
- Withdraw Cash Profits: Withdraw net cash profits from winning trades after completing the trade-through requirement.
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 details
Promo Code | |
Welcome Offer | |
Promo Eligibility | New users 18+ physically located in a state where Kalshi operates (*Political and election contracts are unavailable in NV & WA. Sports contracts are unavailable in NV, MI & WA.) |
Last Verified | November 3, 2026 |
Kalshi Texas Senate winner prediction market pricing, implied odds
Texas Senate winner:
James Talarico (D): $0.69 per share
Ken Paxton (R): $0.31 per share
Total traded at Kalshi: $76 million
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Responsible Risk Management
It's a top priority for Kalshi to keep its users safe. Kalshi offers several risk management tools for traders that can be used at any time, including trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding limit.
Prediction Markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.
Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prices subject to change. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade.
Written by Andy Bryan
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