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2026 Michigan Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 79% probability for one side of Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Michigan Senate winner

ByAndy Bryan·Published: Nov 03, 2026 10:48AM ET·4 min read

The 2026 Midterm Elections will be held on Tuesday. New users can claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 and get a $55 bonus. A Senate seat will be up for grabs in Michigan after incumbent Gary Peters (D) elected not to run for a third term. The 2026 Michigan Senate race is between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (D), a former Wayne County health director, and Mike Rogers (R), who spent 14 years as a Michigan congressman. Kalshi prices El-Sayed to win at $0.79 per share and Rogers is priced at $0.22 per share, with nearly $34 million in trading volume as of Tuesday morning. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate control odds on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. Check out our Kalshi promo code review for full details.  

Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Abdul El-Sayed (D): $0.79 per share
Mike Rogers (R): $0.22 per share

Abdul El-Sayed (D): A physician and public health researcher, El-Sayed served as executive director of the Detroit Health Department from 2015 to 2017. He ran for governor of Michigan in the 2018 Democratic primary, finishing second with more than 340,000 votes. He returned to public service as director of the Wayne County Department of Health, Human and Veterans Services from 2023 to 2025, resigning in April 2025 ahead of his Senate campaign. He won the 2026 Democratic Senate primary on August 4 with 48.5% of the vote over U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Mike Rogers (R): Rogers served in the U.S. Army from 1985 to 1989 and as an FBI special agent from 1989 to 1994. He was elected to the Michigan State Senate in 1994, serving until 2000, then won election to the U.S. House representing Michigan's 8th Congressional District, serving from 2001 to 2015 and chairing the House Intelligence Committee. He was the Republican Senate nominee in 2024, losing to Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes, and announced his second Senate campaign in April 2025. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Democrats have held this Senate seat continuously since Carl Levin was first elected in 1978, with Gary Peters winning it in 2014 after Levin's retirement. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

It's a top priority for Kalshi to keep its users safe. Kalshi offers several risk management tools for traders that can be used at any time, including trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding limit. 

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Written by Andy Bryan

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