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2026 Florida Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 85% probability for one side of Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Florida Senate winner

ByAndy Bryan·Updated: Nov 02, 2026 10:21PM ET·4 min read

The Florida Senate special election between Republican Senator Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon will take place on November 3. Moody is at $0.855 per share on Kalshi, down from $0.91 on Oct. 20, and Nixon is at $0.145 per share, up from $0.09. Moody was as close as 76% to 24% in prediction market prices in December 2024, and more than $4.7 million has been traded across the Florida Senate winner prediction markets at Kalshi ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate control odds on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. Check out our Kalshi promo code review for full details.  

Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Ashley Moody (R): $0.855 per share
Angie Nixon (D): $0.14 per share
Total traded at Kalshi: $4.7 million

Ashley Moody (R): A former federal prosecutor, Moody was elected circuit judge in Hillsborough County in 2006 and served on the bench until 2017. She was elected Florida attorney general in 2018 with 52% of the vote and reelected in 2022, serving as the state's 38th attorney general from 2019 to 2025. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her to the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and she was sworn in on Jan. 21, 2025. She is running in the Nov. 3, 2026 special election to complete the remainder of that term. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Angie Nixon (D): Nixon was elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2020, representing District 14 in the Jacksonville area. Following redistricting, she was reelected in 2022 to represent District 13, and was reelected again in 2024. She won the Democratic primary for this Senate seat on Aug. 18, 2026, with 56.1% of the vote to Alex Vindman's 43.9%. She is the Democratic nominee in the special election to fill the remainder of the term Marco Rubio won in 2022 before resigning to become Secretary of State. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Republicans have won each of the last three Florida U.S. Senate elections. Marco Rubio in 2016, Rick Scott in 2018, and Marco Rubio again in 2022. The last time a Democrat won a Florida Senate race was 2012, when Bill Nelson was reelected. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

It's a top priority for Kalshi to keep its users safe. Kalshi offers several risk management tools for traders that can be used at any time, including trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding limit. 

Prediction Markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.

Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prices subject to change. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade.

Written by Andy Bryan

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