Tua Tagovailoa has better 2020 NFL MVP odds than Joe Burrow
It's widely assumed that Joe Burrow will go No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, but his odds to win next year's NFL MVP Award aren't the shortest among rookies.
It is highly unlikely that a rookie will win NFL MVP honors in the 2020 season. After all, just one rookie has ever done that: Jim Brown with the Cleveland Browns in 1957. Technically, it was called NFL Player of the Year then as the Associated Press didn't start awarding NFL MVP until 1961 and no rookie has won that version. That said, it's quite interesting that Tua Tagovailoa has +8000 NFL futures odds to win MVP next season at the Westgate Las Vegas, better than the +10000 price of Joe Burrow.
There is almost no question that Burrow, the record-setting Heisman Trophy winner out of LSU, is going No. 1 overall in April's draft to the Cincinnati Bengals; about the only thing that would change things is if something tragic happens to Burrow. You would have to wager $10000 on the DraftKings NFL prop that Burrow will be the No. 1 overall pick just to win back $100.
Tua could be more talented overall and might have gone first in the draft if not for yet another injury-plagued season at Alabama. He's +2000 to be picked first overall; most project Tua to be selected no earlier than No. 5 overall by the Miami Dolphins, who may have to trade up to get him.
What makes the fact Tua has shorter NFL MVP odds than Burrow a bit perplexing is that there's a reasonable chance that Tagovailoa doesn't play at all as a rookie to get him fully healthy off a major hip injury and surgery. Tua's agent, Leigh Steinberg, already is on record that he doesn't want his client as a starter in his rookie season, but more because Tua would be better-served sitting and learning for a year like Patrick Mahomes did behind Alex Smith in Kansas City.
Former Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who should be the third signal-caller taken in the first round of this year's draft, is also +10000 to win 2020 MVP honors.