The Atlanta Falcons made Florida's Kyle Pitts the highest-drafted tight end in history back in May, choosing him No. 4 overall instead of perhaps grabbing a franchise quarterback. The Falcons are not regretting that choice so far as Pitts could set an NFL rookie tight end record with a 100-yard game Sunday vs. visiting Carolina but is given an Over/Under total of only 62.5 yards at Caesars Sportsbook. The Falcons are 3-point favorites, but it's on the total of 46.5 points where bettors are making a statement.
It's probably not fair to call Pitts a tight end – although in Fantasy football he is beyond valuable as one – because he spends a lot of his time split out as wideout. Pitts has lined up as an in-line tight end just 12 percent of his snaps.
Last week against Miami, Pitts caught eight passes for 163 yards. That followed a 10-catch, 119-yard effort against the Jets the week before – not a coincidence that the Falcons won both. On the season, Pitts has 471 receiving yards, passing Hall of Famer Mike Ditka (444 receiving yards) for the most receiving yards by a tight end in his first six career games in NFL history. To win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Pitts is now a +1400 fifth-favorite.
The NFL record in the Super Bowl era for single-game receiving yardage by a tight end is 176 by the Giants' Mark Bavaro on Oct. 13, 1985. SportsLine offers odds on whether Pitts will surpass that in a game this season (see below).
No rookie tight end has ever had three straight 100-yard games – the Raiders' Raymond Chester also had two in a row in 1970. As noted above, Caesars oddsmakers aren't very optimistic that Pitts can set the record Sunday with that 62.5-yard total. He also is set at Over/Under 4.5 catches and with a long O/U of 23.5 yards. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Pitts for 4.9 catches for 69 yards.
Probably the best tight end the Panthers have seen so far this year were the Eagles' Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz in Week 5. They combined for three catches and 35 yards, but Philadelphia isn't a great passing team.
As for the total of 46.5 points, that is taking the heaviest Under lean of any Sunday game at Caesars by quite a wide margin: 99 percent of money wagered and 83 percent of tickets sold on the prop.
"The Panthers offense has fallen off a cliff after [Christian] McCaffrey got hurt," said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "[Sam] Darnold hasn't looked nearly the same. People were really high on the Panthers to start the season, but it's tough to back them to score with how they look right now. The Falcons have been putting up points against bad teams, but the Panthers will be the best defense they've faced in a while."
A couple of notable defensive injury updates (that could help Under bettors): Carolina linebacker Shaq Thompson is trending toward a return after missing the past three with a foot injury, while top Atlanta cornerback AJ Terrell also is likely to play after missing last week with a neck injury/concussion.
Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will Kyle Pitts break the Super Bowl era record for single-game receiving yards by a tight end (176) this season?
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