The toughest week to handicap the NFL is easily Week 1 because it's simply hard to know what teams really are without having seeing them in a game that counts – that could especially be the case in 2020 with no offseason activities and potentially very short training camps due to the coronavirus. However, here's one Week 1 betting trend that's hard to ignore: In division games, home teams that are underdogs of at least 1.5 points have covered the spread in five straight openers and 10 of the past 11.
There was just one home underdog in Week 1 last year playing a division game and that was the Raiders, who were +1.5 on the NFL odds for their final home opener in Oakland while facing the AFC West rival Denver Broncos. The Raiders won 24-16 in a game that wasn't really that close. Denver didn't reach the end zone until 2:15 remained.
There are two teams in this scenario for Week 1 this year via William Hill sportsbook odds.
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The Washington Redskins are +6 in Ron Rivera's head coaching debut for the team against the visiting Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 13. The past two times the Skins were Week 1 home dogs vs. an NFC East foe, they won outright: 28-14 over the New York Giants at +2 in 2011, and 13-7 over the Dallas Cowboys at +3.5 in 2010.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are +6.5 at home in Week 1 against the AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts in what will be Philip Rivers' debut for Indy at quarterback. Since 2010, Jacksonville had not been a Week 1 home dog vs. a division opponent. The Jags, though, are on a five-game SU & ATS winning streak as the home team vs. the Colts in any week. Jacksonville was an underdog in three of those.
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