The Dallas Cowboys made a surprising late strike in free agency a month before the regular season, landing former Minnesota Vikings Pro Bowl defensive end Everson Griffen on a one-year, $6 million deal. Griffen will pair with DeMarcus Lawrence to form one of the NFL's best defensive end tandems and helps make up for the loss of 2019 sack leader Robert Quinn in free agency. The SportsLine Projection Model upgraded Dallas across the board with the Griffen addition, boosting the Cowboys' playoff chances to 69.8 percent.
Dallas has a 3.4 percent chance to win Super Bowl 55, sixth-best in the league.
New head coach Mike McCarthy debuts with Dallas on Sunday Night Football at the Los Angeles Rams in the new $5 billion-plus SoFi Stadium, although there will be no fans in attendance. Dallas is currently -3 on the NFL odds and the total is set at 50.5 -- the past four meetings have gone Over.
Dallas ended a two-game SU and ATS losing streak vs. the Rams with a 44-21 rout at AT&T Stadium in Week 15 last year. It would be the Cowboys' only win of 2019 over a team that entered with a winning record. Dak Prescott threw for two scores, but it was the Dallas rushing attack that dominated with 263 yards and three touchdowns. Tony Pollard had 131 yards and a score, and Ezekiel Elliott 117 yards and two TDs.
DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING PROFILE
2019 record: 8-8 (second, NFC East)
2019 against the spread: 9-7 ATS
2019 ATS margin: +1.7
2019 Over-Under: 10-6 O-U
2020 strength of schedule: Third-easiest; Cowboys' opponents combined for a .459 winning percentage last year (117-138-1).
WILLIAM HILL 2020 DALLAS COWBOYS FUTURES ODDS
Win total: 9.5 (Over -145)
To make playoffs: Yes -220, no +180
Division: -120 favorites to win NFC East
Conference: +650 to win NFC
Super Bowl: +1500 to win SB 55
MVP: QB Dak Prescott +2000, RB Ezekiel Elliott +5000, WR Amari Cooper +25,000
Defensive POY: DE DeMarcus Lawrence +3300, LB Leighton Vander Esch +4000, LB Jaylon Smith +6600
Offensive ROY: WR CeeDee Lamb +1400
Defensive ROY: CB Trevon Diggs +5000, DT Neville Gallimore +5000
Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy +1200
SportsLine Model's projection: 9.4 wins (Under)
Week 1 at LA Rams, 8:20 PM ET: Dallas is just 3-5 ATS as a road favorite the past two seasons.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta, 1 PM ET: Dallas has been favored in every home meeting since 1985, going 6-4 SU but 4-6 ATS. The Over is 6-1 in the past seven.
Week 3 at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET: Russell Wilson is 4-2 SU and ATS against Dallas; the last meeting came in a January 2019 Wild Card game in which the Cowboys (-2.5) won 24-22.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland, 1 PM ET: The teams have met four times since 1994, with Dallas going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) and the Under is 4-0.
Week 5 vs. NY Giants, 4:25 PM ET: Dallas is 6-1 in the past seven home meetings (5-1-1 ATS).
Week 6 vs. Arizona, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): Dallas lost the last home meeting in 2014 (with Brandon Weeden at QB), but Dallas was 7-0 SU and ATS in the seven at home before that.
Week 7 at Washington, 1 PM ET: Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its past six at the Redskins (and there are usually more Cowboys fans there these days).
Week 8 at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM ET: Before a 17-9 loss that cost it the NFC East last year, Dallas was 5-1 ATS in its previous six in Philadelphia.
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh, 4:30 PM ET: The Cowboys have won two in a row and are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, dating to 1991. These teams also are scheduled to play in the Aug. 6 Hall of Fame Game.
Week 10 BYE: Coach Mike McCarthy's Packers teams were 11-4-1 ATS coming off a bye.
Week 11 at Minnesota, 4:25 PM ET: The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in Dallas and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 overall (dating to 1987).
Week 12 vs. Washington, 4:30 PM ET (Thanksgiving): The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the past four home matchups, and the Over has hit in five in a row.
Week 13 at Baltimore, 8:20 PM ET (Thursday): Dallas (-7) won the last meeting 27-17 in 2016 but is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS since the Ravens moved to Baltimore.
Week 14 at Cincinnati, 1 PM ET: The Bengals were 2-6 ATS at home last season, and Dallas is 4-1 in the past five in the series (3-2 ATS).
Week 15 vs. San Francisco, 8:20 PM ET: The Over is 7-2 in the past nine meetings, with the teams combining for at least 41 points in all nine, and Dallas is 6-2 SU in the past eight.
Week 16 vs. Philadelphia, 4:25 PM ET: Dallas has scored at least 29 in three of the last four home meetings (3-1 ATS).
Week 17 at NY Giants, 1 PM ET: Dallas is 6-0 SU and ATS in this series since being swept in 2016, Prescott's rookie season.
EXPERT PICK FROM SUPERCONTEST GURU R.J. WHITE: Win NFC East -120
I would lean to their Over at 9.5 were it not juiced to -145. I think they can get to 10 wins as long as the new coaching staff isn't a disaster. Their points scored and against totals suggested they should have been more like an 11-win team last year, and after having a great draft, I think they'll be able to overcome their offseason losses. The schedule is relatively easy, especially if they don't stumble while getting up to speed early on. Since the coaching is the greatest unknown, I'd be more willing to take them at Over 10 with plus odds in the event Mike McCarthy is a plus, which would make this a title contender. The best value is on their division odds, as the Giants and Redskins don't look like they'll compete and the Eagles are dealing with a much tougher schedule.
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