The downgrade from Tua to Huntley isn't properly captured in this number...even against a Jets team absolutely reeling right now. New York had the Phins beat in Miami and get a second chance to play spoiler against a division rival in what could be Rodgers final start of his career. It hasn't been fun backing this team but for what feels like the 317th time this year I'm taking what I believe is an undervalued Jets side to get us to the window.

DraftKings/B365. This line has been falling, but I’m happy to buy low. Jamien Sherwood has cleared this line in 9 of his last 12 games and gets a motivated Dolphins team that has allowed opposing tackles to linebackers at a top 5 rate (data per PFF). And yes, Miami has sustained that rate with Tyler Huntley at QB. While the Jets have nothing to play for, I don’t see Sherwood losing snaps (if anything, that would be fellow linebacker Quincy Williams).

Tyler Huntley acquitted himself well in Cleveland last week, posting a 115.5 passer rating while also running for 52 yards and touchdown. In contrast to the dysfunctional Jets, Huntley led all quarterbacks last week in completion percentage above expectation. Miami still has playoff hopes and has won six of eight. The Dolphins have owned this series, winning four straight and 12 of the past 14. Look for Miami, despite the cold, to prevail against a Jets' team that has lost six of seven and was uncompetitive in Buffalo last week.

If QB Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to go after he sat out Sunday with an injury, this line is shooting up. Miami remains in the playoff chase, though it is counting on an unlikely Denver loss to Kansas City to stay eligible. The games will be played concurrently, so the Dolphins will take the field bent on winning since the Broncos' outcome won't be immediately clear. Even if backup Tyler Huntley takes the snaps, Miami should be fine. Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes against Cleveland on Sunday. Most of all, the Jets appear demoralized, having been hammered by Buffalo, and this is likely QB Aaron Rodgers' swan song in New York.