Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The Chargers rallied late last week against the Cardinals to avoid what would have been a disastrous three-game losing streak in this uneven season. But now they head to Las Vegas on Sunday with a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Raiders, who have showed some pride and improved play the past two weeks while pulling out a pair of overtime wins. But this 3-point shift in the spread is getting a little carried away. The Chargers have the better club and should be motivated after Las Vegas knocked them out of the playoff race last year.
The Raiders are coming off their best game of the season on offense, rolling up 576 yards with about half of that on the ground. With Josh Jacobs looking like he'll be available this week after practicing Wednesday, the Raiders should have a lot of success running the ball against this awful Chargers front. On the other side, the Raiders defense can't get off the field on third down, so the lack of explosion on the Chargers offense probably isn't going to matter as we watch Justin Herbert march up and down the field. I think there's a real possibility both teams get into the 30s, and with the spread around PK, there's even the increased chance of overtime to help cash the Over.
The Chargers will be without starting center Corey Linsley and starting right tackle Trey Pipkins, so Justin Herbert might not be as comfortable as usual. Raiders bellcow Josh Jacobs practiced on a limited basis and is questionable. If he plays, Jacobs should have a big day against a Chargers run defense allowing 151.5 yards per game. Top Raiders corner Nate Hobbs (hand) was activated off IR and is expected to play. I played the Raiders as home dogs but would still lean their way laying less than a field goal.
The Raiders just managed a second straight OT win on the road while racking up 576 yards of offense, including 283 yards on the ground. Now they face the easiest rush defense in the league, a Chargers squad that has surrendered 150-plus rush yards in five straight. The Chargers offense doesn't seem interested in generating big plays, and that's probably fine against a mediocre defense like the one in Las Vegas, but it leaves little margin for error. With L.A. so close to losing a third straight game, I think it makes sense to fade them as road favorites against an offense that can run the ball well.