Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The Chiefs have struggled to cover all types of spreads this season -- as someone who has banked on them the last few years, it's hurt -- but getting this under a field goal (it appears on its way there) presents at least 1.5 points of value. Even if the Bengals get Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back, Kansas City has done a tremendous job this season getting pressure on quarterbacks. Joe Burrow does throw well against the blitz, but he's nevertheless continued to take a lot of sacks. Patrick Mahomes is a cover king as a favorite of 3 points or fewer, and even though the Bengals won both matchups during their run to a Super Bowl appearance last year, that will not affect my move here.
The Chiefs were somewhat lackluster last week against the Rams, but still comfortably managed their fifth straight victory. Kansas City's best performances this season have come on the road, and another one should be ins tore Sunday against a Cincinnati club that memorably swept the Chiefs last year, including an AFC title game upset that send the Bengals to the Super Bowl. The Bengals have won five of their last six but are in a tough spot after grinding out a win over a physical Titans club last week.
Sure, Cincinnati is rolling. But whenever a line on Kansas City is this tiny, it's too tempting to pass up. In their fourth game, the Chiefs were spotted two points by Tampa Bay and won 41-31. Three weeks later, as one-point favorites against San Francisco, they won 44-23. When K.C. loses straight-up, it's often a low-scoring game. (See 20-17 against the Colts, 24-20 to the Bills.) This game projects as a shootout, which would be right in Pat Mahomes' wheelhouse.