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Sun 12/04 | 9:25 PM UTC | Cincinnati
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Kansas City Chiefs 16-3, 8-11 ATS
KC -2.5-120
KC -150
Over 53.5-110
Cincinnati Bengals 14-5, 13-6 ATS
CIN +2.5+100
CIN +126
Under 53.5-110

Expert Picks

NFL | Kansas City 24 @ Cincinnati 27 | 12/04 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -2.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Chiefs have struggled to cover all types of spreads this season -- as someone who has banked on them the last few years, it's hurt -- but getting this under a field goal (it appears on its way there) presents at least 1.5 points of value. Even if the Bengals get Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back, Kansas City has done a tremendous job this season getting pressure on quarterbacks. Joe Burrow does throw well against the blitz, but he's nevertheless continued to take a lot of sacks. Patrick Mahomes is a cover king as a favorite of 3 points or fewer, and even though the Bengals won both matchups during their run to a Super Bowl appearance last year, that will not affect my move here.

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Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
+700 17-9-1 IN LAST 27 NFL PICKS
+600 6-0-1 IN LAST 7 CIN ATS PICKS

Season Splits

16-3, 8-11 ATS
14-5, 13-6 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
46%
5-6
8-3
73%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
60%
3-2
3-1
75%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
44%
4-5
1-0
100%
When Spread was -3.5 to -1
SPREAD
When Spread was +1 to +3.5
100%
1-0
1-0
100%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
50%
2-2
0-0
0%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
20%
1-4
2-0
100%
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
33%
1-2
5-0
100%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
50%
4-4
6-2
75%
vs CIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs KC
0%
0-0
0-0
0%