ANALYSIS: The Chiefs have struggled to cover all types of spreads this season -- as someone who has banked on them the last few years, it's hurt -- but getting this under a field goal (it appears on its way there) presents at least 1.5 points of value. Even if the Bengals get Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back, Kansas City has done a tremendous job this season getting pressure on quarterbacks. Joe Burrow does throw well against the blitz, but he's nevertheless continued to take a lot of sacks. Patrick Mahomes is a cover king as a favorite of 3 points or fewer, and even though the Bengals won both matchups during their run to a Super Bowl appearance last year, that will not affect my move here.