It looked like this spread was going to slide to a flat -7, but the hook is hanging on, so keep an eye on it ahead of kickoff. The Packers under Aaron Rodgers cover 70% of their home games when the spread is less than two touchdowns, and they’re 6-0 ATS overall at home this year. Green Bay enters as the far superior team, the exact type of opponent Cleveland struggles against. The Packers defense has fallen off significantly over the last three weeks, but I don’t see Baker Mayfield & Co. being in position to take advantage due to their lack of weapons. Slow down Nick Chubb, win by double digits and get that No. 1 seed. Back the Pack.

What happened when the Browns played good teams? The Cardinals won 37-14, and the Patriots won 45-7, and the total goes Over. The Packers are in that good team category and have gone Over in their last four with a bend-but-don’t-break defense. The Browns have no offensive rhythm, but they have underutilized RB Nick Chubb who can’t be stopped. Based on the way the Packers defense has played lately, I do think the Browns will score a few touchdowns and get this game Over the total. Over is the play.

Green Bay is 6-0 at home this season, with five of those wins coming by double-digits. Meanwhile Cleveland is 2-4 on the road this season and has not scored more than 10 points in each of its past two road losses. The Packers are just too good for the Browns. Green Bay wins big on Christmas.

The Green Bay Packers catch Cleveland off their Covid week postponed game against the Raiders and...I'm not sure their Covid issues are fully cleaned up. A nightmare for the Browns because well, quite frankly, playing at Lambeau Field has been a nightmare for opposing teams. Green Bay is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS at home this season, not to mention they actually boast an 11-game regular season home winning streak dating back to the 2020 season. Matt LaFleur is 16-6 ATS at home with the Packers as well. All six at Lambeau this year Green Bay has won by 18, 10, 14, 17, 8 and 15. The Browns are 2-4 on the road this season and have not scored more than 10 points in each of its past two road losses. Go Pack Go.