The Titans looked sluggish in their last two games, both at home, and lost the last one to the Texans. But the results helped me get a juicy number on the road. The road is where they have done the most damage, winning and covering four of five games, with all four wins as underdogs. The Patriots have won and covered their last five, but none against teams I can say will make the playoffs. I took the points with the Titans.

No team is hotter than the Patriots, who are 5-0 SU and ATS over their last five games. At the beginning of that stretch, they were seven-point favorites at home against the awful Jets, and now they're seven-point favorites against the AFC's current No. 1 seed. The Titans obviously aren't as good as that status would indicate, but their defense is playing very well. The loss last week was solely due to five turnovers, three that handed Houston 13 points. The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -3, and I love being able to play against that big of a move when a QB injury isn't involved. I think this is a low-scoring battle where the Patriots win but don't cover.

The formula has been simple the last two weeks for New England. You enter one dimensional and leave with that taken away too. Let's drill it down even further. What were these teams missing? Browns, no run game due to Covid. Falcons, no run game due to injury. Enter the Titans...who don't have a run game. Not to mention Tennessee has an injury report longer than a CVS receipt. Bill Belichick will focus his energy on taking away Ryan Tannehill's pass game and the Patriots will close up shop with another win.