The Texans' O-line should be a disaster Sunday in Indy. Not only is left tackle Laremy Tunsil out with a thumb injury, center Justin Britt is questionable after failing to practice all week with a knee injury. His replacement, Justin McCray, has logged one career snap at center. On top of that, right guard Marcus Cannon went on IR last week. The Colts add T.Y. Hilton to an offense that's averaged 26 points the past two weeks with a healthier Carson Wentz. Lay the points.

Last week, the Vikings were laying around 10 points in a matchup against a supposedly awful team despite no reason to believe they themselves were actually good. The week prior, the Titans were laying around a TD on the road despite no indication they'd be able to overcome WR injuries. This game feels like the "are you sure they're this good?" line of the week. The Colts played much better on Monday night but ultimately look very suspect defensively, particularly with multiple injuries in the secondary. Houston's pass offense came alive last week, and I like their chances to get through the backdoor if we need a late cover. But we may not need it if Indy is being overrated by this line.

The Texans offense showed some signs of life last week against the Patriots, with Davis Mills putting together one of the best rookie QB performances you'll find against a Bill Belichick defense. That gives me optimism in the offense in this matchup against a Colts defense that came out of the Ravens game with multiple injuries in the secondary, including Xavier Rhodes (concussion). Carson Wentz is looking healthier by the week, and he just led an offensive performance of more than 500 yards against a good Ravens defense. I expect both these teams to get into the 20s, with the Colts having the potential to push this one over largely on their own if it's a blowout as the spread implies.

Picking this during Colts-Ravens MNF ... as I watch cornerback after cornerback leave injured for Indianapolis. Plus, Indy somehow gagged away a 16-point fourth-quarter lead and lost in overtime. The Horseshoes figure to be FLAT on a short week even as bad as Houston is. The Colts already were without several starters entering MNF.