Cleveland @ Jacksonville

Both teams are going to be run-heavy. The Jaguars will be without their top two receivers, making Mike Glennon's task even more difficult. Go Under.

The Jaguars roll into this game with Mike Glennon as the starting quarterback and no D.J. Chark outside at receiver. Despite that, I think they're a great value getting a touchdown at home, and it comes down to the team coming to town. Why are the Browns good enough to lay seven on the road without Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on defense? Their run game is incredible, but the Cleveland passing attack has been lacking all year in virtually every matchup. Glennon is a replacement-level QB, but that's actually an upgrade from what Jacksonville has been getting from Jake Luton. He can cover through the back door late and even have Jacksonville in position to beat this shorthanded Browns squad.

Jacksonville's offense, the passing game in particular, was just flat out ineffective with rookie Jake Luton at the helm. It probably won't be much better with Mike Glennon. This is a tough spot against a Browns defense that is playing some of its best ball of the season.

Even though the Browns will be without Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, their two best defenders, I have to jump on Cleveland at -6.5 (it likely will rise to at least 7,and I don't like the Browns giving that many points) with the news that horrible Mike Glennon (6-16 SU, 10-12 ATS career as starter) has been named Jacksonville's starting QB. The Jags have officially embraced the Tank and have clearly quit on embattled Coach Doug Marrone on a franchise-record-tying nine game losing streak. To make matters worse, the entire Jacksonville defensive staff was sent home this week after one of them tested positive for COVID-19.

The perception of Cleveland has been completely skewed by playing three straight bad weather games. Before that stretch, Cleveland scored more than 31 points in five of six games, and the Browns defense was one of the league’s worst. With injuries and illness striking the defense, look for the discrepancy between the Browns offense and defense to show up again. Jacksonville is susceptible to giving up a big scoring day as the Jaguars are allowing 29.8 points a game. The Over is 15-0 since Oct 4, 2015, when the Browns are on the road facing a team allowing 23-33 points a game. Prediction: Jacksonville 31, Cleveland 27.

The Browns have had a tumultuous week with missed and adjusted practices due to several COVID cases. Even worse, the Browns defense has only two key contributors in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and both are out. The Browns defense has not been good all season, but that has been masked a bit having played three straight bad weather games. The Browns are road favorites after having played at home each of their last three games. Teams which are away favorites after playing at least three straight games at home are 36-54 ATS. I'm on Jacksonville.