The Jets won't have their top two receivers and a starting safety due to injury, making their tall task basically impossible. Because New York covered last week, we're getting a small discount on the Chiefs. With the wind expected to be only 13 mph, look for K.C. to score in the mid-30s and cover.

This is a massive total for such a mismatch of a game largely borne from the Chiefs getting to face a Jets defense that hasn't stopped anybody this year. But there are two reasons to love the Under here. First, the Jets defense has actually improved over the last two weeks, holding the Dolphins to 24 points and the Bills to nothing but field goals. And the Chiefs constantly go Under in games where they're double-digit favorites, with the Under 8-2 in that situation since 2015. Expect the Jets offense to continue struggling and the Chiefs to shift down in the second half, keeping us well short of this total.

Last week, the Jets showed some fight and were able to cover against the Bills. The main reason why, an inconsistent Josh Allen kept them in the game. They won't get that luxury this week as they face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, that showed last week in the snow they could still be as explosive as if it were a clear, sunny day.

My model says the Chiefs cover the spread in almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value at this number. Kansas City suffered its lone loss of the season in its last home game, a 40-32 setback against Las Vegas. The Chiefs tuned up for this contest by posting a 27-point victory at Denver last week. New York has struggled in nearly every way imaginable this year. Three of the Jets' seven losses have been by at least 20 points. Expect this to be the fourth as Le'Veon Bell punishes his former team.