It's always key not to overreact to recent results, and that's certainly not what this pick is about. The Chiefs offense with a healthy Patrick Mahomes is capable of winning and covering any game, any time against any opponent. The simple fact is that the Patriots are struggling so massively on that side of the ball that they will need their defense to not only turn Mahomes & Co. over but potentially even score another defensive TD to beat this Kansas City team. No, KC's defense is not great by any means. New England will play better than it has in recent weeks. But I want the points whether in Foxboro or not.

The New England Patriots may only have two losses but last week's performance in Houston raised serious concerns. Kansas City’s defense likely will give the Patriots offense plenty of opportunities but look for Andy Reid to continue to have regular-season success versus the Patriots. Take the points.

Quietly, Kansas City has played much better defense the last two weeks. The Chiefs were able to turn the ball over against both the Chargers and Raiders. We know their offense is as consistent as they come, and when you combine that with improved defensive play, you like their chances moving forward. New England, unfortunately, is till trying to figure things out on the offensive side of the ball.

The Patriots are coming off a loss and that means it's a great time to take the Patriots. Since 2005, New England is 37-16 ATS following a loss. Look for the Patriots to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that is yet to prove it can stop the run and get a big win.

I think the Chiefs are the better team right now with Patrick Mahomes looking healthier the further he gets from his injury while the New England offense struggles, but I can't make them a best bet with Bill Belichick at home coming off a loss. So I'm looking to the Under and hoping to ride a Chiefs defense that has played well against a mediocre Pats offense paired with a Patriots defense I expect to bounce back at home after struggling in Houston. Unders are 8-4 in Pats games this season, and that trend should only strengthen in December in the Northeast.

The gap between the offenses is so vast that Kansas City looms as a straight-up winner. The Chiefs own the second-best yards-per-snap average, a stark contrast to New England’s No. 23 placement. Patriots QB Tom Brady’s frustration with his undermanned unit is evident. With a recent 10-4 ATS road record, the Chiefs will not be intimidated by the rabid crowd. The deadly duo of QB Pat Mahomes and WR Tyreek Hill finally is together after both missed chunks of the schedule.