If you pay attention to any NFL media coverage, you'd think the Cowboys were the only team with anything at stake in this game. The reality is, they are on the road against a fellow underachiever at 6-6 that is similarly hanging onto its playoff life and desperate for a signature win. The Bears have home-field advantage, the better current form and arguably the better overall team. Taking the points with a prime-time Underdog Nobody Wants is the value position.

Backing the Bears and Mitch Trubisky in this spot is a difficult ask considering their recent success has come against bad teams. While the Cowboys may not be world beaters, they are competent -- and more importantly, they have a running back. If Chicago figures out a way to silence Ezekiel Elliott, it will have a chance to win ... but I see no way that happens. Zeke should be able to run relatively free, clearing the pocket for Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper has been bothered by comments about his play on the road and should be focused on having a big game against a worsening Bears defense. Though my numbers list this as a pick 'em, I'm backing the Cowboys to cover the meager spread.

The Bears have won two straight, while the Cowboys have lost their last two. Both teams are at 6-6, and the loser of this game likely will miss the playoffs. The Bears are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight and their 3-9 ATS mark is the worst in the league. The Cowboys don’t beat many good teams, but the Bears hardly qualify.

Mitchell Trubisky is not going to play well here. He's beaten three terrible teams over the last four weeks. The Lions ran all over the Bears last week and Ezekiel Elliott will too. The weather won't be awful, which is a bonus for Dallas. Lay the points.

The Bears have won three of four games, but those wins came against Lions backup QBs twice and a Giants team that has lost eight straight. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four, but those losses came against teams that are 8-4 at worst and Dallas outgained their opponents in each. Even a Dallas defense dealing with injuries should be able to slow down this unimpressive Chicago offense, and the Chicago defense could struggle with the best offense it has faced in a while. Wait to get this at 2.5 and then jump on the Cowboys.