The Colts impressed me last week against the Dolphins -- yeah, really -- and I love what I'm seeing from Andrew Luck, Eric Ebron and Co. The loss of Jack Doyle hurts, but not enough for this team fighting for a playoff spot to go lose to Jacksonville. The Jags are starting Cody Kessler and are without Leonard Fournette. If Fournette was active, I could see staying away from this game (I still wouldn't take Jacksonville), but with him hurt, I'm all-in for the Colts covering what would be a seven-point home spread. Playing in Florida is tough but not that tough.

These two teams met in Indy a few weeks ago and the Colts were favored by three. Allowing for three points of home field each way, now we're saying they should have been favored by 10? The Jags ended up with a push in that game and didn't have A.J. Bouye. The switch of QBs doesn't bother me; it's not like Blake Bortles was playing well. The switch of OCs could be a big positive considering how bad Nathaniel Hackett's play-calling was. The Colts' five-game winning streak has included four games at home and one in Oakland, and they were 1-5 before that run. Seems like we're getting a ton of value on this line.

A summary of the Jaguars week (so far) -- offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett is fired; quarterback Blake Bortles is benched; running back Leonard Fournette is suspended and offensive guard Andrew Norwell is placed on injured reserve, joining his season-long sidekick, center Brandon Linder. It's unfair to evaluate incoming quarterback Cody Kessler based on previous starts, all with lowly Cleveland, but the fact is his record is 0-8 straight-up. The Jags appear in no shape to keep up with high-scoring Indy.

It wasn't just the Jags' QB who didn't play well against Buffalo. Their defense gave up 24 points to a rookie QB. Jacksonville has already lost eight times and Indy is on a roll. Lay the points.