Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
This is a lot of points considering how the Steelers historically have played coming off a bye (not well). The last four matchups have been decided by a total of 10 points. Back the Browns to be competitive again.
The Browns, despite not winning a game for more than a year, have played the Steelers tough in their last four games, losing by no more than four in each. The offense is better with Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb in feature roles, and the defense is second in DVOA and first in turnovers, so I don't think this game gets away from them. The Steelers have been bad off a bye, 1-6 ATS in their last seven and 0-4 in the last four years. They also have to deal with the Le'Veon distraction. Browns keep it close yet again.
Hard to call this matchup a rivalry. The Browns have not beaten Pittsburgh in ages. Yet they often push the Steelers to the brink. The season opener ended in a tie, and the previous margins were four, three and three points. Pittsburgh covered in none of those four games. Beyond that, the Steelers have covered once at home in the past eight. Its vulnerable pass defense, ranked 27th, provides an opening for rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield as he gains valuable experience each week. And the Browns’ ball-hawking defense, ranked first with 20 takeaways, puts the Steelers on high alert.