Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
We'll jump in late to grab the value-added hook on the underdog Thursday night as there's not enough separation between these two 4-3 teams to warrant such a big spread. The Texans have the much better current form but have won just one game by more than 7 points all season. They have had trouble with protecting Deshaun Watson and a have a marginal run game. The always-erratic Dolphins played poorly in a home loss to Detroit last week, but they should clip this bloated number.
The Dolphins are missing their top two receivers. With Brock Osweiler going against his old team, I think the Texans -- who are playing well and have won four straight -- will crush 'em.
Injury-prone quarterback Ryan Tannehill being out another week is the least of Miami’s problems. Backup Brock Osweiler has been serviceable, but to whom will he throw? The wide receiver situation is dire, with Albert Wilson (hip) out, Kenny Stills (groin) banged up and DeVante Parker (bruised ego) mysteriously placed on the inactive list last Sunday. Houston QB Deshaun Watson spent 24 hours on a bus commuting to and from last Sunday’s game at Jacksonville because of a lung condition, which could take a toll in this short week. The Dolphins have hovered in Under territory four consecutive road games and the Texans in four of the past five at home.
The Dolphins are severely banged up at receiver, they have to travel on a short week and under Adam Gase they've covered one of their past eight road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 31 at New England and by 10 at Cincinnati. This is a prime spot to back Houston, which has won four straight. Houston's O-line showed significant improvement in the convincing win at Jacksonville, as Deshaun Watson was sacked just once and the team ran for 141 yards. Miami, meanwhile, gave up an absurd 248 rushing yards (7.1 ypc) in a home loss to Detroit. Houston will be very balanced offensively, and that will be the difference. Lay it as the Texans snap their 0-5 ATS skid at NRG Stadium.