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Expert Picks
Deshaun Watson finally appears to be getting in a groove, putting up big numbers in his last two games. The Texans had to play three of their first four games on the road, and now they can take advantage of a better-than-average home-field edge. They match up well with the Cowboys when on defense, as the Texans rank second in rush DVOA while giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. Can Dak Prescott win with the passing game on the road? I'm skeptical, as Dallas ranks 28th in pass DVOA and 30th in net yards per attempt.
The Cowboys are often overvalued in the market -- case in point, a 1-3 ATS ledger this year -- so getting allotted more than a field goal in a barely-road game against in-state Houston offers rare value on America’s (Mediocre) Team. Dallas’ moribund offense awakened last week, and QB Dak Prescott can puncture a secondary minus both starting CBs, the latest being Aaron Colvin (ankle). The fate of RB Lamar Miller (chest) won’t be determined until game day. A low score, by today’s standards, bodes well for the underdog Sunday.
The Texans are 1-3, with their only win coming by 3 points. In fact, they've only covered once in their past nine games. Look for Houston to struggle once again on the ground, and for Dallas to keep it close.
For once it looked as if the Texans defense would finally show up last week against the Colts. But for whatever reason, they have a hard time getting off the field and eliminating the big play in the passing game. The Cowboys found their rhythm offensively against the Lions last week, showing a great deal of balance on that side of the ball. What we'll see here is a lot of points scored by both teams. The Cowboys defense has been surprisingly good this year.