Just as in 2019, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been terrific for Fantasy purposes this season. He ranks as the eighth-highest scoring Fantasy QB, and he's thrown for 300 yards or three touchdowns in over half of his last 13 games. Fitzpatrick's gunslinging ways -- he ranked seventh in average depth of target in 2019 and is currently 11th in air yards per game in 2020 -- has helped to enable several of his weapons to be highly productive Fantasy options over the past two seasons.
DeVante Parker ranks as the WR26 in Fantasy through six weeks, and that is with his snaps being limited to begin the season. Mike Gesicki ranks as the TE11, Preston Williams is just inside the top-50 Fantasy WRs, and Myles Gaskin ranks as the RB16 thanks in large part to a healthy 4.8 targets per game mark.
With Fitzpatrick replaced by rookie Tua Tagovailoa, is the offensive focus on downfield passing about to be scaled back in a major way? And what type of success should we expect the rookie to find in his first real taste (he played five snaps against the Jets in Week 6) of NFL defenses? How does Miami's decision to go to Tagovailoa fairly early in the season affect his offensive rookie of the year odds?
There's a lot to consider with a changing of the guard at the quarterback position, especially when it involves the fifth-overall selection in the NFL Draft. SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs broke down the Fantasy implications of the change in detail below.
We saw DeVante Parker rank as a top-10 Fantasy WR down the stretch in 2019, and he's been trending upward over the past few weeks. He did sustain a groin injury in Week 6, but Parker should be cleared in time for Miami's Week 8 game. Parker had been somewhat reliant on heavy volume numbers -- particularly in the air yardage department -- from Fitzpatrick in order to post the types of Fantasy numbers we grew accustomed to in 2019. It's unlikely that he'll see that type of volume with Tua under center, so I'd view Parker as a fringe top-30 Fantasy WR going forward.
Preston Williams played 85 percent of the snaps and saw 12 targets in Miami's first two games, but he didn't look quite like himself in his first two games post ACL surgery. Since then, we've seen his snap rate and targets drop. Week 6 marked the first game since Week 2 that Williams played more than 70 percent of the snaps, and he hasn't topped five targets since Week 1. Still, he's caught a touchdown in three of his past four games and topped 100 yards in Week 5. It's possible that Williams has just started to hit his stride and will be the healthiest we've seen him in some time coming out of the Week 7 Bye. I don't view his Fantasy value as affected much by this move, although his team-leading 66.3 air yards per game could definitely drop going forward.
Mike Gesicki ranks second on the team in targets (30) and is third in air yards (347). From a volume standpoint, Gesicki has had it pretty great with Fitzpatrick under center. He's third among all tight ends in air yards, and he's one of just five tight ends who have both 300 air yards and 30 targets. He seems like the logical candidate to see his targets dip. We didn't see Tua throw to the tight end position (although Gesicki is really more of a big slot receiver than a tight end) much in college, and it would be a surprise if the offense is functional enough to continue to sustain three fairly high volume options. I'd still view Gesicki as a top-12 option at a weak TE position, but be prepared to look for other options if his targets are down with Tua under center.
Myles Gaskin has come on as the every-down back for Miami, and he's performed admirably. The move from Fitzpatrick to Tua signals a clear focus on the future, so Gaskin should be expected to continue to be the prioritized player in Miami's backfield over Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. He's a fringe top-20 rest of season Fantasy RB.
Tagovailoa is among the very best quarterback prospects we have seen over the past 5-10 years.
Tua even has one trump card over Joe Burrow -- we have literally never seen his level of play anywhere below exceptional. While it took Burrow until his final year to showcase his NFL-ready talent, Tagovailoa has been carving up opposing defenses since his freshman year -- when he replaced Jalen Hurts in the National Championship game and led Alabama to a come-from-behind victory in overtime.
Removing Fitzpatrick for a rookie might hurt Parker, whose career was rejuvenated with Fitzmagic. But, if Tua is as good as advertised, he could be a significant upgrade over Fitzpatrick from an accuracy standpoint. Even in an awesome 2019 season, Fitzpatrick ranked just 21st in the NFL in terms of PFF's accuracy rating. His pass-catchers saw a catchable target on just 70.9 percent of targets, and Preston Williams specifically had it bad, seeing just a 59.3 percent catchable target rate in 2019. In 2020, an excellent 82.1 percent of Fitzpatrick's passes to Parker have been catchable, while Gesicki (64.3 percent) and Williams (56.5 percent) have had worse luck. There's a chance Tua will upgrade the situation for those two.
From an overall offensive environment standpoint, Tua couldn't ask for much better. With a creative offensive coordinator in Chan Gailey and all of the aforementioned pass-catching weapons, Tagovailoa could find success right away in Miami. His situation is similar to that of Justin Herbert in L.A., in that he already has a well established offense in place. He doesn't have quite as much raw talent at his disposal as Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, but Tua may have better offensive line play than either Herbert or Burrow. Herbert's under pressure rate (43.7 percent) is the second-highest in the NFL, and Burrow (36.6 percent) isn't far behind him. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have kept Fitzpatrick relatively clean this season, as evidenced by his 30.4 percent under pressure rate.
The pieces are there for Tagovailoa to succeed, but a difficult string of matchups to begin his career could make the transition bumpier than Miami had hoped for. Each of his first four games as a starter will come against a defense ranked in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA, but Tagovailoa will draw matchups against the Jets and Bengals after that. He projects as the third-best rookie Fantasy QB in terms of rest of season and dynasty outlook, since we have already seen both Burrow and Justin Herbert play well at the NFL level, but Tua has the ability, coaching staff, and weaponry in place to supplant either or both of Burrow and Herbert in terms of Fantasy value as the season progresses. He's a borderline top-20 Fantasy QB going forward, and is worth owning over players like Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Nick Foles, and Kyle Allen.
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