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    Fri, May 2612:30 am UTCTD Garden
    Track OnCBS Sports
    Miami
    Heat
    MIA
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L58-49
    ATS46-58
    O/U51-54-2
    FINAL SCORE
    97
    -
    110
    Boston
    Celtics
    BOS
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L68-34
    ATS55-46
    O/U52-48-2
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER
    Last 5 ATS
    58-49
    Win /Loss
    68-34
    46-58
    Spread
    55-46
    51-54-2
    Over / Under
    52-48-2
    Key Injuries
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    PF
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SF
    No Key Player Injuries
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER

    Simulation Picks

    SPREAD
    MIA @ BOS
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    MONEYLINE
    MIA @ BOS
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    OVER / UNDER
    MIA @ BOS
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    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    Over0%
    PUBLIC
    Under0%
    Over
    MONEY
    Under

    Expert Picks

    Avatar
    Total Rebounds + AssistsBam Adebayo OVER 12.5 Total Rebounds + Assists -103
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    For whatever reason, Bam Adebayo averages more rebounds and assists on the road than at home. Outside Miami, he averaged 12.8 rebounds and assists per game in the regular season, compared to 11.9 at home. The playoffs have been no different. He's averaging 14.4 rebounds and assists in eight road playoff games compared to 10.4 at home. Barring a blowout, he'll play a lot of minutes again tonight, and shouldn't have trouble going over this total.

    Pick Made: May 25, 7:05 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total AssistsMarcus Smart OVER 5.5 Total Assists -160
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    Marcus Smart hasn't been as effective in this series as he was against Philly, but he's done an excellent job of distributing the ball. He only had three assists in Game 2, but has finished with at least six in the other three games. He's also finished with at least six assists in 22 of Boston's 37 home games this season, and in five of his seven games against the Heat.

    Pick Made: May 25, 7:02 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + Assists + ReboundsBam Adebayo OVER 29.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -137
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Bam Adebayo had a very quiet game 4 performance attempting just 7 shots and finishing with 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 0 assists. Miami Coach Eric Spoelstra, Bam, and Bam's teammates have all acknowledged they will need a greater effort from Bam tonight in order to be successful. Adebayo has often struggled with consistency throughout his career, on any given night he will play like one of the better big men in the NBA and then the next game he will be passive and barely show up on the stat sheet. I expect to see a lot more offense run through Bam tonight and his usage to increase as a result, especially with Gabe Vincent (18 PPG in the ECF) on the shelf.

    Pick Made: May 25, 6:24 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsJaylen Brown UNDER 22.5 Total Points -106
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    Jaylen Brown isn't healthy. He hurt his elbow falling to the floor in Game 1 and his shot hasn't been right since. After opening the series with 22 points on 10/21 shooting, he's shot 35.7% in the last three games while averaging 15 points. He's only shooting 42.9% at the free throw line. Almost all his points have come at the rim, and he looks hesitant to shoot from the mid-range and beyond. It's hard to score 23 points at the rim in one game.

    Pick Made: May 25, 4:37 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + Assists + ReboundsRobert Williams III OVER 12.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -125
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +77
    9-7 in Last 16 NBA Player Props Picks
    Jason's Analysis:

    Robert Williams brings energy to the Boston Celtics. He has gone over this line in 6 of the 9 home games this playoffs averaging 15.2 points + assists + rebound. The Celtics shot their best 3-point game at 40% in game 4, if the three point shot starts to fall again look for the heat to start drifting closer to the 3 point line opening the lane for the Celtics only rim runner in Robert Williams.

    Pick Made: May 25, 4:28 pm UTC
    Over / UnderOVER 215.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +80
    3-2 in Last 5 NBA O/U Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    When I first saw the line come out for this game, I thought the Heat would cover as big underdogs. However, I’m worried with Gabe Vincent (ankle) now out. He has played a key role in this series, averaging 17.5 points in 35 minutes per game. With that in mind, I’ll switch over to the total and take the over. It barely missed in Game 4 with both teams combining for 215 points. There were at least 216 points scored in each of the first three games. If the Celtics remain dialed in from behind the arc, they could score plenty. The absence of Vincent could also mean more minutes for Duncan Robinson, who can score in bunches when he is locked in from deep.

    Pick Made: May 25, 3:27 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total AssistsKyle Lowry OVER 4.5 Total Assists -151
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +640.25
    28-17 in Last 45 NBA Player Props Picks
    Matt's Analysis:

    There are a few ways to lean props-wise with Gabe Vincent out tonight for the Heat but my first reaction is Lowry should move into the starting lineup and play more minutes -- Lowry hasn't played more than 28 in the series yet but has topped this number twice. The Heat need fellow guards like Jimmy Butler and Max Strus to focus on scoring not facilitating.

    Pick Made: May 25, 3:01 pm UTC
    Money LineBoston -305
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +465
    7-2-1 in Last 10 NBA Picks
    +470
    3-0 in Last 3 BOS ML Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    You won't see me play a big moneyline favorite very often, but I like this spot for the Celtics. The Celtics are the top team in the NBA in Rim and 3 rate per ShotQuality. The injury to Gabe Vincent is significant as it makes that Miami backcourt a little thin and changes the Miami look defensively. Look for Jayson Tatum to take over this game for the Celtics as they extend the series. Miami will try to get healthy and take care of business back in South Beach.

    Pick Made: May 25, 2:38 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsJayson Tatum OVER 30.5 Total Points -127
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    Mike's Analysis:

    Big number but it's still a little soft as I have Tatum at 32.8 median projection in this situation (must win playoff game at home). The biggest difference in home vs. road games for Tatum has been the free throw line. He attempted 23 free throws in games 1 and 2, and just 3 free throws in the two road games combined. Looking back in the 76ers series we saw a very similar result: 27 free throws in final two home games and just 12 free throws in final two away games. The minutes, usage, and opportunity will be there for Jayson Tatum tonight. Expect a friendly whistle as Jayson Tatum has a big night to extend the series.

    Pick Made: May 25, 1:50 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + ReboundsGrant Williams OVER 10.5 Total Points + Rebounds -108
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Grant Williams got himself into hot water by trash talking with Jimmy Butler in Game 2. However, after not playing in Game 1, Williams has logged at least 26 minutes in each of the last three games. That helped him record at least 11 combined points and rebounds each time. In fact, the last two games, he has scored 12 and 14 points alone, respectively. With the expectation that he plays at least 25 minutes again, the over is the way to go here.

    Pick Made: May 25, 1:33 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsCaleb Martin OVER 12.5 Total Points -121
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    This number is finally starting to climb for Caleb Martin. Still, I think it’s too low. He has scored at least 15 points in all four games of this series, shooting 63.8 percent from the field along the way. He played at least 30 minutes in all four games and should continue to spend a ton of time on the floor with Kevin Love struggling to defend. Give me the over.

    Pick Made: May 25, 1:28 pm UTC
    Point SpreadBoston -8 -105
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +92
    2-1 in Last 3 NBA Picks
    +786
    31-21-1 in Last 53 BOS ATS Picks
    Zack's Analysis:

    Winning game four has left the door open for Boston to extend the series against the Miami Heat. Boston finally had success on knocking down open jump shots in game four. In total they drained eighteen three point shots and also won the turnover battle against the Heat. I expect this line to climb overnight and closer to game time. Grab the number now.

    Pick Made: May 24, 11:41 pm UTC

    Team Injuries

    Miami Heat
    Friday, Nov 24, 2023
    Avatar
    SG
    Dru Smith
    KneeOut
    Friday, Mar 01, 2024
    Avatar
    PF
    Kevin Love
    HeelQuestionable
    Avatar
    SG
    Josh Richardson
    ShoulderOut
    Avatar
    SF
    Caleb Martin
    ThumbQuestionable
    Avatar
    PG
    Tyler Herro
    KneeQuestionable
    Avatar
    SF
    Haywood Highsmith
    KneeQuestionable
    Boston Celtics
    No Player Injuries