The Sixers are up 3-2. They've won without Joel Embiid and they've won with Embiid. Philly is 9-2 straight up and ATS its last 11 games while Boston is 4-5 SU/ATS its last nine. The Celtics win and lose by the 3-pointer, but over the course of the last two games Philly may have figured out how to defend the Celtics. Boston outscored opponents by 9.7 points at home but by just 3.1 on the road. The 76ers are 28-17 ATS at home this year. I'm on Philly.

This game is the series for the 76ers. They have a home game with a chance to close out the series. They easily could have lost this series 4-0, but instead have a healthy MVP in Joel Embiid, a confident James Harden and if the role players can deliver at home, the 76ers win outright Thursday.

James Harden has averaged 41 PAR in the series, but the average is skewed by two huge performances. He finished with 52 in Game 1 and 59 in Game 4. In those games, Harden scored 87 points. Those two games in which he scored at least 40 points are the only two games in the series he's gone over the 35.5 number listed tonight. Win or lose, I don't see Harden scoring 40+ tonight.

PJ Tucker isn't asked to do much for the Sixers offensively, but that doesn't mean he doesn't do anything. Yes, the juice is heavy on this prop, but Tucker has had at least one assist in eight of the nine games Philly has played this postseason.

The 76ers have the Celtics on the brink of elimination. They pulled off an upset win on the road in Game 5, giving themselves a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a win on their home floor Thursday. They desperately don’t want to play a Game 7 in Boston, so expect them to come out firing. These two teams have combined for at least 216 points in four of the five games in this series, so I’ll ride with the over.

Boston had an uncharacteristically poor offensive performance in Game 5, and the Over still cashed for the fourth time this series. Only Game 2, when Philly scored 87 in Joel Embiid's return, stayed Under. I'm projecting 223 points for Game 6, well over the posted total. And in my model's simulations, the Over is cashing 71 percent of the time.

Figure I win here regardless because I hate the Celtics dating back to when their frontcourt featured two zombies (but good ones) in Robert Parish and Kevin McHale. Also always played as MJ (of course) in the Jordan vs Bird video game. Wow, I'd love to play that again. Either Boston wins here and earns me some $$$ or the Celtics are out. No lose situation. I find it hard to imagine the C's lose three straight to very flawed Philly. The Celtics have won six best-of-7 series when trailing 3-2, more than any other NBA franchise. They are +155 on the updated series line and that's pretty good value.