If Trae Young was going to play, even at 50 percent, I was prepared to take Atlanta for the upset with no Giannis Antetokounmpo for Milwaukee. But with Young out, I'll lean the home side. The Bucks were 6-5 overall in the regular season when the Freak sat but they were without at least one other key player in three of those losses. Atlanta can't expect Lou Williams to be so good again starting in place of Young.

No Trae Young, no Giannis Antetokounmpo. That's nearly 60 points missing or so. It's obviously not that simple, but by many metrics the Bucks were actually better during the regular season defensively when the Greek Freak sat. Young is a defensive liability. This feels like a slugfest.