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nba - Thu 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC | AdventHealth Arena |

Miami @ L.A. Lakers

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
LAL -4.5
-5
Over / Under
217.5
218
ML
LAL -185
-200

Matchup breakdown

Miami
L.A. Lakers
PROJ SCORE
4-5
W-L
10-3
4-5
ATS W-L
7-6
4-5
O/U
5-8
-1.3
PT DIFF
10.5
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Wed 9/30

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

L.A. Lakers -4.5

WIN

Favorites have dominated Game 1 of the Finals in recent years, going 13-2 ATS. With the line ticking down in our favor, I'll back the Lakers to keep rolling and improve to 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA ATS PICKS
+656 22-14-1 IN LAST 37 LAL ATS PICKS
+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 MIA ATS PICKS

Josh Nagel

Senior Analyst
Wed 9/30

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

L.A. Lakers -4.5

WIN

The Heat have made an impressive run to the NBA Finals and this should be a competitive series. Even so, Los Angeles won both regular-season meetings, including a win in Miami that halted the Heat's 11-game home win streak to start the season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis appear to be a matchup problem for their Miami counterparts, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Lakers' duo had 112 combined points, 31 rebounds and 26 assists in the two games, while Miami's stars combined for 68 points, 30 rebounds and 15 assists. Look for an inspired Lakers team to control Game 1.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 NBA ATS PICKS
+361 8-4 IN LAST 12 LAL ATS PICKS
+361 8-4 IN LAST 12 MIA ATS PICKS

Micah Roberts

Former Vegas Bookmaker
Tue 9/29

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

Miami +5

LOSS

The Lakers were first in the NBA in field-goal percentage (48.5) this season, but the Heat have been the better team from the free-throw line, have made 197 more 3-pointers and shot 37.9 percent from long distance, which was second-best in the league. They also turn over the ball less frequently and have more assists per game. Why is Los Angeles favored by so much with no home-court advantage, especially since Miami is 12-3 SU and ATS this postseason and has recorded seven of those wins as the underdog? I’m on the Heat in Game 1.

+280 5-2 IN LAST 7 NBA PICKS
+146 7-5-1 IN LAST 13 LAL ATS PICKS

Tom Fornelli

#TrustTheProcess
Thu 10/1

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

L.A. Lakers -4.5

WIN

Here's a fun little stat for you: Did you know that in Game One of the last 15 NBA Finals, the favorite has gone 13-2 ATS? That's not the reason I'm making this pick, but it sure as hell didn't hurt my confidence. As for why I like the Lakers here, I just don't see how the Heat match up with the size the Lakers can throw at them. The Celtics were a much better matchup for this Heat team than the Lakers will be. I'm expecting this to be a short series.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAL ATS PICKS
+80 3-2 IN LAST 5 MIA ATS PICKS

Mike Barner

NBA Specialist
Tue 9/29

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

Miami +4.5

LOSS

The Heat are once again underdogs, which is right where they want to be. Jimmy Butler has done a great job of leading the team throughout the playoffs and they have an advantage in the coaching department with Erik Spoelstra, who was obviously LeBron James’ coach when he was a member of the Heat. They also have a talented defensive big man in Bam Adebayo, who can hang with Anthony Davis. Not only do I think the Heat keep this game close, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win.

+85 2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA ATS PICKS
+1450 20-5 IN LAST 25 MIA ATS PICKS
+765 22-13-2 IN LAST 37 LAL ATS PICKS

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Tue 9/29

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

Miami +4.5

LOSS

The Lakers were a favorite from the start of the season, but not many would have picked the Heat to be representing the East. Miami can win this series. The Heat are no joke, and they are more than prepared for the Lakers. Miami can match up well on both sides of the ball and Jimmy Butler is going to be a key performer. Much will hinge on how well he can guard LeBron James. The Heat have plenty of depth, just like the Lakers, and are better at shooting the threes. Miami is 13-3 SU and ATS this postseason. Los Angeles is just 7-15-1 in its last 23 NBA Championship games.

+120 10-8-1 IN LAST 19 LAL ATS PICKS

Tim Doyle

Big Ten Baller
Wed 9/30

Miami @ L.A. Lakers | 10/01 | 1:00 AM UTC

Miami +165

LOSS

The Lakers have the two best players in this series, but the Heat have the next four. I think Anthony Davis has his hands full with Bam Adebayo. Los Angeles has lost two of its three series openers this postseason. I like the Heat in the series, and if they are going to win it, they must post a victory tonight.

+335 5-3 IN LAST 8 LAL ML PICKS

Miami

player
SFJimmyButler
37.8fan duel$0
38.4draft kings$0
35.1cbs sports
player
PFBamAdebayo
36.4fan duel$0
38.6draft kings$0
33.8cbs sports
player
PGGoranDragic
29.2fan duel$0
31.5draft kings$0
29.5cbs sports
SCORINGMINPTSREBAST3PMFTM
J. ButlerJimmy Butler4018.85.65.20.86.6
G. DragicGoran Dragic3617.53.55.02.23.2
T. HerroTyler Herro3617.24.63.22.91.9
B. AdebayoBam Adebayo3915.29.74.70.04.0
D. RobinsonDuncan Robinson3614.63.21.44.01.0
J. CrowderJae Crowder3211.04.81.92.31.6
K. OlynykKelly Olynyk156.02.81.21.01.0
A. IguodalaAndre Iguodala173.42.21.40.50.4

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

No Key Player Injuries
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

L.A. Lakers

player
SFLeBronJames
52.3fan duel$0
57.3draft kings$0
52.8cbs sports
player
PFAnthonyDavis
50.9fan duel$0
52.5draft kings$0
45.2cbs sports
player
PGRajonRondo
19.9fan duel$0
21.3draft kings$0
20.5cbs sports
SCORINGMINPTSREBAST3PMFTM
A. DavisAnthony Davis4027.410.53.11.07.7
L. JamesLeBron James4026.89.29.51.95.0
K. KuzmaKyle Kuzma2310.43.81.21.11.5
K. Caldwell-PopeKentavious Caldwell-Pope309.92.71.51.51.4
D. HowardDwight Howard239.08.20.70.02.1
D. GreenDanny Green287.93.51.41.70.6
R. RondoRajon Rondo246.93.55.50.80.6
J. McGeeJaVale McGee134.73.90.40.00.6
M. MorrisMarkieff Morris124.62.20.60.60.6
A. CarusoAlex Caruso153.71.41.40.40.8

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Avery Bradley
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 09/30/2020 23:21 GMT