Hunter Goodman's line at DraftKings has good value, as he's as low as +375 on BetMGM to hit a HR. Justin Verlander has allowed 10 of his 14 HRs at home this season, and the weather is hitter-friendly in San Francisco today. Goodman has a slightly higher HR rate away from home despite playing his home games at Coors Field. We set Goodman's line at +420 to homer.

Willy Adames has been a lot stronger in the second half of the season, now up to 17 HRs in 62 games after going deep yesterday. He's just 3-for-18 in his career against Kyle Freeland, but one of those hits was a HR. Adames has 11 HRs in 44 games when the opposing pitcher is a lefty, and 19 of the 21 HRs Freeland has allowed have been to right-handed hitters. We believe Freeland is overdue to allow a HR or two after not giving one up in his last 4 starts. We set Adames' line at +315 to homer.