Seattle tries for the sweep and certainly has the right pitcher on the hill for it in Logan Gilbert (2-0, 1.87 ERA). His ERA at home is 1.32 and during the day it's 1.17. Counterpart Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.73 road ERA.

We hit this prop yesterday to great success, as Slade Cecconi struck out eight M's despite having plus odds on Over 4.5. Pfaadt similarly has a great minor-league track K/9 rate at 11.2, and though he has a larger MLB sample size, his rate at the highest level is a respectable 8.7 K/9 in 125 career innings. The M's remain the only MLB team to strike out at least 10 times per game, and until that changes we'll be look at value to play K Overs against them, which I think we have here with a talented pitcher in Pfaadt with more upside than he's shown in MLB.

The Mariners have won two straight against the Diamondbacks, with the road team scoring just one run in each game and in three straight, a surprise for an offense averaging 5.39 runs per game. They're up against a pitcher in Logan Gilbert who has allowed no more than one run in four of his five starts this year, continuing to dominate before May 1 (2.26 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 91:17 K:BB ratio in 14 career starts with a .549 OPS against). With the M's hot (8-2 in last 10) and the D-Backs not (3-7 in last 10), I have to roll with Seattle at this DraftKings price.

It might not be too late to sound the alert on the Mariners, who have been playing like the best team in the American League for nearly two weeks now. The current 9-2 uptick has pushed Seattle to the top of the AL West, fueled by lights-out pitching; just nineteen runs allowed across that eleven-game span. Ask the D-backs, held to a mere one run each of the past two nights at T-Mobile and now at risk of getting swept. Arizona has to solve Logan Gilbert, who has an 0.86 ERA his last three starts, and the Mariners bullpen to give a better chance to Brandon Pfaadt, in whose last four starts the D-backs have lost. Play Mariners on Run Line

Neither of these teams is hitting a ton but I like the M's ability to win close low-scoring games, something they find themselves in a lot of. Logan Gilbert looks like an ace again, while the Arizona rotation has some issues, especially after the top two arms. The kid going today doesn't look anything like what he did in the playoffs (it happens) and is giving up a hit an inning. Mariners have been covering this regularly against NL teams (7 of last vs Senior Circuit). Gilbert can be downright unhittable and I like him in a day game with the sun/shadows