Merrill Kelly has posted a better ERA at home vs on the road in five consecutive seasons for the DBacks and it looks like nothing is changing this year, as he has an ERA under two in Arizona. While Kelly had eight punch outs in the first start of the year, he's been held well under the 6.5 line in his last two. The Cubs are striking out around 24% of the time vs right handed pitchers but Kelly's strikeout rate to left handed batters is considerably down so far, and Chicago will likely run out 4 lefties. I like under 6.5 K's here.

When Chicago travels to Arizona it is one of the Diamondbacks highest attended series. The representation of Chicago transplants in the valley of the sun almost makes this a home game for the Cubs. Look for the Cubs to feed off that energy, as Chicago’s timely hits gets them their third straight victory.

After playing multiple consecutive games outside, the Chicago Cubs will play their first road game in a true indoor stadium. The team is sending rookie Ben Brown to the bump, with a ground-ball rate of 35.7%, a 64.3% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 96.3 MPH, ranking last in baseball. Brown's pitching style may not be effective in Arizona, as he only uses two pitches. Merrill Kelly induces ground balls 47.1% of the time, allowing a 25.5% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 86.8 MPH. He has consistently performed better in games played at Chase Field than away games.