After an off day Thursday, the Cleveland Guardians will play a new home series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Over their last nine games the Guardians have just two wins as they are struggling at the plate. Additionally, Shane Bieber’s home ERA looks great at 2.41 but he has had just three home starts compared to seven on the road. Take the Cardinals as their young bats continue to do well.

I like this spot for the Cardinals as my computer says the wrong team is favored in this game. I have St. Louis winning 53 percent of sims, which suggests they should be -113 favorites in this matchup. I want to pick on Shane Bieber and take advantage of his name value propping up this moneyline price. Bieber has largely outperformed expected data on his 4-seam fastball where the xwBOA is up over .360 and the cutter is .428 with 3 HR against just that pitch. When it comes to offensive production the Guardians are one of the worst teams in MLB against left-handed pitching. Back the Cardinals after Goldschmidt and Arenado received the day off on Thursday.